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As of Sunday, three quarters of Italy will no longer be in the yellow zone. In seven days, the Italian red or orange regions go from 5 to 15, based on the monitoring of the control room and the requests of some local administrations. The national Rt index is 1.09. The technicians of the control room of the Ministry of Health and the Higher Institute of Health write, among other things, that “this week a high general level of risk of an uncontrolled and unmanageable epidemic remains due to a continuous generalized increase in the probability transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the national territory in a context in which the impact on healthcare services continues to be high in the majority of Regions and Provinces ”.
The color of the Regions
Lombardy – Piedmont – Liguria – Emilia romagna – Tuscany – Lazio – Campania – Apulia – Sicily
Last week, Calabria, Emilia, Lombardy, as well as Veneto and Sicily, whose presidents applied for that position, turned oranges. This week, according to the data, Lombardy and the province of Bolzano turn red, as does Sicily, which would have orange data but will be placed in that area at the request of its president. In addition to these three regions, there are 12 more in orange: Abruzzo, Calabria, Emilia, Friuli, Lazio, Liguria, Marche, Piedmont, Puglia, Umbria, Val d’Aosta and finally the Veneto which is precisely in that condition based on a your request from last week (it would still have the yellow zone data). Basilicata, Campania, Molise, province of Trento, Sardinia and Tuscany are still yellow.
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The Minister of Health, Roberto Speranza, will make the new ordinance to initiate the measures related to the colors starting on Sunday in the different Regions. The government eliminated the orange zone throughout Italy over the weekend, but set stricter parameters for the yellow zone. Thus, with an Rt value calculated taking the lowest interval of the two for which the average is obtained, higher than 1 one turns orange even with moderate risk (with 1.25 instead it goes red) but when the risk is high is it enters the same zone even with an Rt below 1.
Here is the value of the RT and the risk in the different Regions.
Red
Lombardy 1.38 – high
Bolzano Province, 1.4 – high
Sicily 1.14 – high
orange
Abruzzo 1.11 – moderate with risk of progression
Calabria 0.96 – high
Emilia-Romagna 1.13 – high
Lazio 1.07 – high
Liguria 1.1 – moderate
Marks 0.87 – high
Piedmont 1.1 – high
Puglia 1.14 – high
Umbria 1.21 – high
Val d’Aosta 1.01 – moderate
Veneto 0.95 – moderate
Yellow
Basilicata 0.96 – moderate
Campania 0.91 – moderate
Molise 0.46 – moderate to high risk of progression
Province of Trento 0.95 – moderate with high risk of progression
Sardinia 0.92 – moderate
Toscana 0.96 – moderate to high risk of progression
The Control Room Experts: “Risks of Uncontrolled Epidemic Increase”
According to experts, who took into account the period between 4 and 10 years, “there is a generalized worsening of the epidemiological situation in the country. However, the increase in incidence was contained thanks to the mitigation measures adopted during the holiday period. “. “If it had not closed at Christmas, things would have been even worse. The conclusion is that” the epidemic remains in a delicate phase and a new rapid increase in the number of cases is possible in the coming weeks, if the conditions are not strictly maintained. mitigation measures at both the national and regional levels. This trend at the national level actually underlies strong interregional variations with some regions where the absolute number of hospitalized in a critical area and the relative impact, combined with the high incidence, nevertheless impose incisive restrictive measures ”.
The national RT is increasing for the fifth consecutive week. Then there is the problem of incidence, that is, of weekly cases per 100,000 inhabitants. “The high incidence value in the follow-up week in the Veneto region (365.21 per 100 thousand), the province of Bolzano (320.82), Emilia Romagna (284.64) and Friuli Venezia Giulia (270, 77 The impact on the entire territory is still far from levels that allow to fully reestablish the identification of cases and tracing of their contacts throughout the national territory. ”No one comes close to the level of 50 per 100,000, which, combined with a Rt of less than 1 would bring the Regions into the newly established white zone.
Regarding the issue of bed occupancy. “There are 12 Regions and Provinces – write the technicians – that have an employment rate in intensive care and / or medical areas above the critical threshold (compared to 13 the previous week). The employment rate in intensive care nationwide continues to be above the critical threshold (30%). Overall, the number of people admitted to intensive care is increasing slightly from 2,579 to 2,636. The number of people admitted to medical areas also increased slightly, from 23,317 to 23,712. at the national level there are strong interregional variations with some regions where the absolute number of hospitalized patients in a critical area and the relative impact, together with the incidence, nevertheless impose restrictive measures ”.
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