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“The epidemic in Italy is confirmed to be worsening rapidly“: Thus begins the monitoring of the Higher Institute of Health published today and which examines the progress of the coronavirus emergency between October 26 and November 1. At this point, in almost the entire national territory, the situation corresponds to a type 3 scenario, which represents a moderate to high level of risk “,but the Regions and Autonomous Provinces where the transmission speed is already compatible with a scenario 4 are increasing“In general, therefore, we are faced with one.”Very serious general and generalized situation throughout the national territory with now evident criticisms“Especially with regard to the capacity of hospital beds.”All Autonomous Regions and Provinces are classified as being at high risk of an uncontrolled and unmanageable epidemic in the territory or at moderate risk with a high probability of progressing to high risk in the coming weeks“experts still warn.
The increase in new cases in the last two weeks has caused the incidence to increase up to 523.74 inhabitants per 100 thousand and the Rt index reached a value of 1.72. The ISS also highlights the criticalities in terms of the quality of the data reported to the surveillance system, both in terms of timeliness and completeness: factors that caused delays in the processing of Region numbers. “Itself, This constitutes one more proof of the generalized criticality of the resilience spread throughout the national territory and due to the gravity of the epidemiological situation. As a consequence, this can lead to an underestimation of the transmission speed and of the incidenceIn addition, the number of cases not attributable to known transmission chains continues to increase, exceeding 80% of new reported cases in some regions.
Therefore, experts reiterate the probability that critical thresholds will be reached imminently regarding the maintenance of hospital services in all regions. “It is confirmed that a drastic reduction of physical interactions between people is necessary to alleviate the pressure on health services. It is essential that the population avoid all opportunities for contact with people outside their home that are not strictly necessary and that they stay at home as long as possible.“.
And in conclusion, for the areas classified as moderate risk, but with a high probability of going high risk in the next month “It is recommended to quickly consider and anticipate the measures planned for the high risk level and the corresponding scenario.“And again, the Regions are invited to continually analyze risk levels and”consider a timely increase in mitigation measures in the most affected areas“.
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