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Giada Oricchio
A “Clean slate”, The in-depth talk by Corrado formigli Thursday January 28 his La7, teacher Andrea Crisanti gives the alarm: “More transmissibility of COVID-19 means more variants, multiple variants mean risk of vaccine ineffectiveness. Two years to remove the mask. “
The director of the Department of Molecular Medicine of Padua, Andrea Crisanti explained what’s going on with him COVID-19: “The variants of the coronavirus are a natural phenomenon, every organism that replicates makes mistakes, it may happen that a part of the message changes, most of the changes are harmless, but the change can make the virus even more contagious. The virus is like a population with small differences that compete with each other. The English variant is transmitted more quickly, has a higher Rt, but we do not give the infection numbers to the Gallera (former health adviser in Lombardy ed). We have to vaccinate as many people as possible, with the current virus we need 70% for herd immunity, with the English variant 75%, for now we have no evidence that it is more lethal but it is also true that in England there is amounts of more deaths than before. The number of infected people is influenced by how we measure them, we use molecular tests and the quick and fast ones are creating an apparent effect. But we can say that in Italy we are facing a decrease in infections and we are benefiting from local closings at Christmas ”.
Formigli asks if this is the period he fears the most for a resurgence of the Coronavirus and Chrysantis: “If all schools were open and all areas were in yellow, I would be concerned. The truth is that the more transmission there is, the more variants are generated and the more variants there are, and the greater the probability that the vaccine will be ineffective. We are not in optimal condition now. Did you expect chaos from the vaccine manufacturers? It was predictable, you had to calculate the best, the worst and the worst scenario. We expected the complex chain to work perfectly and, on the other hand, this is hardly the case, the system is very fragile and a small hitch causes a domino effect as we have seen ”. For the epidemiologist: “It was a mistake to fool that the vaccine was available to everyone, there was the illusion that the pandemic would be resolved shortly and work at the local level was neglected, we could not block the transmission at the territorial level and that it is worrying ”.
Crisanti was very severe with the behavior of the Italians: “There is a drying of feelings, people get used to it, 500 people die a day and think ‘patience, maybe it won’t happen to me.’ But let’s forget the story: all governments have controlled communicable diseases like typhus and malaria. It is a real madness that with these transmission levels we can go back to before as if we had a magic wand. Can we go back to 1000 deaths a day? The possibility of the third wave depends on how many people we can vaccinate and if we can make a system that blocks transmission. If we cannot and above all we will privilege the reopening for economic reasons, the third wave will be inevitable ”. The professor also clarifies the AstraZeneca vaccine: “Based on the data provided by the company a few months ago regarding the full dose, the vaccine has an efficacy coefficient of 70%, that is, the vaccine made to 10 people protected 7 and 3) No . But I don’t know what data he will present now, the coverage depends on R zero and variants that can escape the vaccine. Italians’ fear of long-term effects of the vaccine with the new R-mna technology? It is a technology that was not born yesterday, so many experiments and tests have been done. Not in the vaccine but in other cases we have good statistics. I don’t regret saying that I wanted to see the vaccine data before doing that. Now we have a regulatory procedure provided by the companies and we must follow it, without mixing vaccines or delaying the second dose ”.
Professor Crisanti remained buttoned on the issue of the outdated pandemic plan and did not completely reject the color system (“it is also adopted in England”, while sharing the harsh judgment of Government consultant Walter Ricciardi (“If we compare pandemic to World War II I would say that we are in full swing, in the most terrible year, 1941 “):” Psychologically the worst year will be this because there is hope for vaccines, but it is a frustrated hope. Let it be a year of waiting, The gigantic plan to implement the vaccination campaign is not easy. Unfortunately we do not even know how long the immunity lasts, if it covers one year it means that if it is not vaccinated at 70%, we will never reach herd immunity. When will we remove the mask ? To remove it it will take a couple of years, to be optimistic a year and a half, but the truth is that we do not know if those who are vaccinated can transmit it ”.
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