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Editorial Board
09 November 2020 06:38
Campania runs the risk of ending up in the orange or even red zone from today or tomorrow, or when the ordinance of the Ministry of Health is ready based on report 25 of the Istituto Superiore di Sanità that was supposed to come out on Saturday and that, instead, he’s been a few days late. And the paradox is that it runs the risk of ending up there despite officially having yellow “or even green” numbers, as some technicians have ironed. What’s going on?
Why Campania risks the orange or red zone
Meanwhile, there is a premise to be made, that is, that yesterday the Minister of Health, Roberto Speranza, said that “there is a serious relationship between the institutions and it would be a serious crime to give false data.” A way of talking with the mother-in-law so that the daughter-in-law understands, given that in recent days some Regions have suspiciously delayed sending the update numbers to the ISS, thus delaying the writing of Report 25. In all this, she explains this morning. RepublicYesterday Silvio Brusaferro from the Institute and Gianni Rezza from the ministry reviewed the data throughout the day and there are problems with the Campania numbers. That is, “they are too good, they are almost green.”
But that is not all. The newspaper also writes that the prosecutor Mariella Di Mauro has initiated an investigation to verify the data of the stations and the other parameters used for the risk classification in the now famous 21 indicators. In other words, the increase in places in ordinary hospitalization increased by 1,300 units in one day (!) And intensive therapies went from 335 to 590 in twenty days while 186 patients are hospitalized. Meanwhile, the infections do not stop, yesterday 4601 new positives compared to just under 26 thousand swabs. For the mayor of Naples, de Magistris, it is “unfortunately inevitable, even late, to proclaim Campania a red zone”. But in the meantime, it slows down due to the closure of the promenade, even yesterday crowded, as Governor Vincenzo De Luca requested: “Closing a road does not make sense and, on the contrary, it can cause a funnel effect in other places. indoors where the risk of contagion is greater than outdoors “.
Soft blocking: the six regions towards the orange zone
Report 25 and the Campania case
That is why, as Corriere della Sera writes, Campania seems to have a real situation different from that written in the numbers: they say that the president of the ISS, Silvio Brusaferro, is “analyzing the data with a magnifying glass”. The newspaper writes that the region could suffer a double jump in the ranking, going from yellow to red. “There are lines of ambulances and cars in all hospitals in Naples – is the alarm of Giuseppe Galano, head of citizen 118 -. Cotugno, Cardarelli, Ospedale del Mare are in crisis to receive Covid patients “.
About him Daily occurrence Stefania Salmaso, former director of the National Center for Epidemiology, Surveillance and Health Promotion of the Higher Institute of Health (ISS), explains that as of April the Regions have adopted an algorithm based on 21 indicators (such as frequency of infections, number of outbreaks , attention span, etc …) to determine who should come out of the confinement: “For 24 weeks they sent this data. But one Region did not have access to the data of the others. For a couple of weeks we have seen the situation change. was running again. This data was made public on the website of the Ministry of Health and used to introduce the new countermeasures. The fact is that in some cases the algorithm was applied to data that does not seem complete. From the website of the Ministry, for example, see the table of 21 indicators: some Regions registered the date of onset of symptoms only in 40% of cases of new symptoms and they were yellow, others for 90%, they have been placed in the orange zone. The record of the onset of symptoms is used to calculate the famous Rt parameter, the number that tells us how many new cases an infected person can generate. It may happen that whoever has registered the data correctly has a higher Rt and is precisely in the orange zone and whoever has not done it is in the yellow zone, but in reality they will have to be in the orange zone “.
