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Are there places where the risk of contracting the coronavirus is greater? According to science, yes, and they are bars, restaurants, gyms and hotels. Since the start of the pandemic, several studies have tried to investigate the methods of contagion and the places and situations in which the virus spreads most easily. The latest work on the subject, carried out by researchers from Stanford college and of Northwest college and published in Nature, used a mathematical model to simulate the spread of Covid in a city.
Coronavirus, the places where contagion is most likely
The study author, I swore Leskovec, explained how the risk assessment came about: “We built an IT model to analyze how people of different demographic backgrounds and different neighborhoods visit more or less crowded types of places. Based on that, we could predict the likelihood of new infections occurring at a given time and place. ”
To understand the behavior of the virus, the researchers analyzed the movements of 98 million US citizens, who between March and May passed through 10 of the largest metropolitan areas in the United States, such as New York, Chicago me Saint Francisco. The study, in addition to taking into account the time spent in places and encounters with other subjects, also analyzed some demographic data, epidemiological estimates and anonymous information on the location of cell phones, managing to develop a mathematical model that seems to confirm this. how the majority of coronavirus transmissions occur in places defined as “super-spreaders”, that is, super-diffusion. In particular, the sites where the risk of virus transmission increases considerably are restaurants, gyms, Pub me hotel.
The reason? These are all places where people are more likely to be in tight spaces and indoors, even for long periods of time. According to the US study, 85% of the new infections registered in Chicago could be attributed to the 10% of the places most visited by citizens and tourists. The study shows that the coronavirus is transmitted indoors, where people stay for a long time and do not always wear a mask, even when distances are maintained.
Another important fact that emerged from the study concerns minorities and low-income people: two categories forced to move for work reasons and who shop in smaller and busier stores. But is there a solution? According to the researchers, the closure would be of little use: the correct idea to avoid a lock and limit contagions could be a reduction in capacity. But there are limitations in this study: in addition to being simulations, the analysis does not take into account other potentially risky places, such as school or home.
Coronavirus and contagion risk: the other studies
Super diffuser events were also discussed in a study published in Sciences: identifying an increased risk of contagion in some places. According to this report, as there are individuals who do not infect, there are also ‘super-spreading’ people, that is, capable of transmitting the virus to many more people than the average. High viral load plays a key role, but even in these cases, circumstances and events with closed and crowded spaces are the ” perfect cradle ” for infection.
According to another study Posted in October by Thiemo Fetzer, researcher at the University of WarwickThe behavior would also make a difference: the English decision to pay part of the bill to citizens who ate in restaurants in August would mean an increase of between 8 and 17% in infections. Instead, according to research published in September in the site Gods Centers for Disease ControlCovid-positive patients in the US were twice as likely to have consumed uninfected people in a bar or restaurant. The increased risks of enclosed places were also confirmed by a study published in the journal Jama Internal Medicine, who analyzed cases of contagion during a Buddhist seminar in Ningbo, China. In that case, the participants had been together on the bus, then in an outdoor setting and a meal indoors: even then, most of the infections were attributable to “closed” situations, such as traveling by bus. Understanding how the virus is transmitted in relation to public places can be a key point in the battle at Covid, both to contain the epidemic and to avoid having to shut everything down once more.
