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In the coming months, the arrival of seasonal flu could affect the ongoing pandemic, for example, making it difficult to diagnose COVID-19, whose initial symptoms can be mistaken for those of the flu. For this reason, the Ministry of Health already last June invited the Regions, which have the responsibility of managing health care, to bring forward the influenza vaccination campaign for people at risk to October, considering the possibility also for those who lag behind, who may decide to get vaccinated beyond the usual times to do so.
We tend to think of seasonal flu as an illness that carries some discomforts, such as fever and exhaustion, but with no particular risks. In fact, influenza viruses are the cause of hundreds of thousands of deaths worldwide each year, and for this reason, it is important that people at risk (such as the elderly) get vaccinated against influenza, to reduce the likelihood of developing serious symptoms and complications that can be fatal.
Every year, vaccination campaigns protect the lives of millions of people and require considerable production and logistical effort, which pharmaceutical companies and health systems have learned to master and manage without particular problems. However, the ongoing pandemic could complicate their activities, also due to a demand for vaccines that could be higher than in other years. Many people who are not at risk, but become more sensitive to the issue of vaccines in these months of coronavirus circulation, will want to get vaccinated to at least avoid the flu, or to reduce the risk of incorrect diagnosis in the case of symptoms that do not allow immediate determination. either flu or COVID-19.
The GIMBE Foundation, which is in charge of analyzing the efficiency and possibilities of improving healthcare in Italy, has recently carried out a fairly accurate census to verify whether the doses of influenza vaccines available in Italy will be sufficient to meet demand. The result of the survey does not indicate particular difficulties for people at risk, but nevertheless indicates that the vaccine may not be available in pharmacies for the rest of the population.
In recent months, the regions have received vaccine stocks from manufacturers totaling approximately 17.9 million doses. These would be insufficient if 100 percent of people considered at risk (mostly elderly) decided to get vaccinated, but it never happens that such high percentages are reached (vaccination is recommended, but still optional).
Data from the Ministry of Health on vaccination coverage from previous influenza seasons confirm this fact. In the elderly population over 65 years of age, for which the vaccine is free, in the last season (2019-2020) 54.6 percent were vaccinated, in the previous season 53.1 percent were vaccinated. The flu vaccination rate in the general population, on the other hand, is significantly lower, hovering around 17 percent.
(Ministry of Health)
In Italy, however, the number of older people who get vaccinated is still small. The indications of the World Health Organization and the National Vaccine Prevention Plan of the Ministry of Health indicate a minimum objective of 75 percent of vaccinations among those over 65 years of age and in other risk groups.
Given the ongoing pandemic, this year free access to vaccination was also provided in the 60-64 age group, with additional vaccination recommendations for health personnel and for those who work in particular structures, such as reception facilities. elderly where during the health emergency in March and April there was a peak of positive cases and deaths attributable to COVID-19.
Based on the data from the 2019-2020 vaccination campaign and the doses acquired by the Regions for 2020-2021, the Italian Medicines Agency (AIFA) believes that the 17.9 million available can largely cover the needs , considering that in the previous season 12.5 million doses were distributed. At the moment, however, it is not easy to make forecasts about the real number of applications, in an extraordinary situation such as this year conditioned by the pandemic.
The demand from those in a risk category is likely to be higher, while it is difficult to predict how much will be higher overall, and thus among millions of people who generally don’t consider getting vaccinated (at their expense). Several companies have also organized to encourage vaccinations among their employees, in some cases anticipating the costs of doing it, in order to reduce uncertainties related to possible infections among employees.
Considering the available quantities, the Regions have so far delivered nearly 250,000 doses of the vaccine to pharmacies, with agreements to supply more if necessary or there is the possibility of obtaining new supplies. Pharmacies are expected to source theirs from abroad, with the potential to make an additional one million doses available to the general population.
The analysis carried out by GIMBE (here the detail of the methodology) is based on the data derived from the supply tenders, or by contacting those responsible for the tenders and the regional departments that deal with health and pharmaceutical services. Therefore, there may be some discrepancy, but the data taken as a whole is reliable.
The low availability, at least at this stage, of the influenza vaccine in pharmacies for the general population is partly due to increased demand in international markets, which has made it difficult to obtain doses. GIMBE also reports that some Regions “did not anticipate the need to increase stocks for the population that is not at risk,” with delays that later resulted in further difficulties with orders.
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