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When does the red zone end in Campania? Started on November 15, after three days of swing (initially Campania was marked as moderate risk, yellow zone), the highest severity range in terms of Covid contagion in Italy, according to the criteria established by the last Dpcm in to import, formally ends on Sunday, November 29. And we can say that it will not leave our region quickly.
As always, there are two levels to consider: the scientific (which includes both epidemiological analysis and the stress level of hospitals) and the political (which also concerns the protection mechanisms of now closed or narrow-gauge economic activities) . Obviously, the scientific answer will prevail: we cannot afford a further increase in infections as in the post-summer season. So today one fact is clear: the coronavirus will be part of the dinner on Christmas Eve and New Year’s Eve. There will be no “all free” on December 25, 2020 or January 1, 2021.
Infections are slowly but surely decreasing, from this point of view the data from Campania show a picture of progressive loosening of the control of the virus. Progressive, slow but not irreversible: in case of immediate and total reopening, the situation could be reversed in a period -January and February 2021- in which the traditional flu already tends to increase the influx to hospitals of the most-at-risk groups, the elderly, children, immunosuppressed.
The analysis of the contagion data in Campania carried out a few days ago by the team of physicists made up of Clementina Sasso (Inaf, National Institute of Astrophysics), Maria Rosaria Santovito (Co.Ri.STA, Advanced Telesensor Systems Research Consortium), Raffaele Liuzzi and Giorgio Punzo (CNR, National Research Council) he hypothesizes for mid-December a percentage of positives in tampons that begins to approach 2%.
The “big but” compared to this goal is represented by social behaviors. As we know, the virus travels in meetings, in non-use of masks, in hospital outbreaks, in nursing homes and in the workplace. The red zone with the imposed “soft confinement” (curfew, travel ban, closure of many activities) certainly serves to curb the fury of contagion. The data from Gimbe this week in this regard is very clear.
The closed school is served? Overflow problem: the president of the Campania Region Vincenzo De Luca says yes, much of the world of parents and the Minister of Education says no. A few weeks ago in the scientific journal Lancet a work analyzed the impact of the different measures on the decrease (or increase, when they end) of infections after having studied what happened in 131 countries. The infectious disease specialist Massimo galli of the Sacco hospital in Milan said on twitter:
According to a study published in the Lancet Infectious Diseases on Covid-19 data from 131 countries, reopening schools would increase the reproductive number of the infection by 18% in 14 days and 24% in 28 days. Risks by grade level were not calculated.
Then there is the question of hospitals and doctors. With the agreement between the Campania Region and the private clinics, it has certainly eased the pressure on intensive and sub-intensive therapies and on ordinary hospital beds, but the critical phase is not over yet. Campania is still under enormous stress from a hospital point of view and this will be the true distinction regarding the measures of loosening of the red zone, only in the second phase the “dry” number of infections.
In the next few days part of the doctors – emergency anesthetists and internal medicine – who responded to the Civil Protection call (450 were asked, 165 arrived) should arrive. That should also be a decisive step to give a breath of fresh air, it is precisely the case of using this image, to a health system in enormous difficulty.
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