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In Tuesday’s U.S. election, the Democratic Party’s hopes in Congress to maintain a solid majority in the House and win a majority in the Senate, which is now controlled by Republicans, were likely disappointed: It is almost certain that Republicans will retain the majority. in the Senate, and that they will even manage to increase their seats in the House, reducing but not overturning the majority of the Democrats.
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In the senate
Currently in the Senate, Republicans have a majority of 53 to 47 votes (two of the Democratic votes are officially defined as independent), and in Tuesday’s election they voted to renew 35 seats, 23 of which belong to Republican senators. Democrats, to get a majority, would have had to win at least three or four seats and retain all those they already have: four seats to gain a majority of 51 senators, three seats to win a 50-50 parity, hoping for Joe Biden to win. The presidency. In fact, when the vote in the Senate is tied, the vice president can cast his vote to decide the majority.
Democrats knew that toppling the majority this year would not be easy: All 35 seats at stake are in states that have always been close to Republicans, and even Chuck Schumer, the leader of the Democrats in the Senate, has said for months that the party’s hopes would have been better in the 2022 midterm elections. But polls at one point had so far tilted in Biden’s favor, and pollsters were still giving the Senate the most blunt: Five thirty eight He said the odds of winning the majority were 3 out of 4 for Democrats, which even Schumer, a few days before the election, had begun to believe: “We are knocking on the door of the majority in the Senate,” he said.
With very few seats yet to be awarded, Democrats have so far managed to reverse two races: In Colorado, Democrat John Hickenlooper, a former state governor and briefly also a presidential candidate, managed to win the seat held by Republican Cory Gardner. In Arizona, Democrat Mark Kelly, former astronaut and husband of Gabby Giffords, won the seat that belonged to John McCain, which was occupied by Republican Martha McSally, a former fighter pilot. In Alabama, however, Democrats have lost one seat: Senator Doug Jones, won by Republican Tommy Tuberville.
So far, Democrats have increased their majority by just one senator (they won two seats but lost one), and with four seats still to be filled, the two parties are on perfect parity: 48 to 48.
New York Times.
Of these four seats, however, Republicans are expected to win two: one in Alaska, where Republican Dan Sullivan leads by 30 points, and one in North Carolina, where Republican Tom Tillis leads by 1.8 percentage points. . This would bring Republicans to 50 senators. Two seats remain to be counted, both in Georgia, where according to electoral law, if neither candidate gets more than 50 percent of the vote, they go to the polls. In one of the two polling stations – in which there were two Republicans and a Democrat in the race – it is already certain that he will go to the polls. In the other, Republican David Perdue has 50.1 percent of the vote with 95 percent of the votes cast.
In practice, if Perdue stays above 50 percent, the Senate will remain Republican: otherwise, Democrats will have to wait on both ballots in Georgia for a 50-50 parity. Voting will take place in January.
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For Democrats in the Senate, the disappointment was considerable. On the one hand, because they lost in some contested states, such as Maine, where moderate Republican Susan Collins won even though pre-election polls had given rival Sara Gideon a clear advantage (in some cases, even more than 10 percent). hundred). one hundred). In general, then, in many seats that were considered balanced before the election, such as those in Iowa, Montana, and South Carolina, Republicans have done much better than expected. On the other hand, there has been disappointment that the Democratic Party and its constituents have spent a lot of money on some highly visible races, to no avail. For example, hundreds of millions of dollars have been spent trying to unseat Senators Mitch McConnell, the Republican Majority Leader, and Lindsey Graham, a close Trump adviser, but both have won without a hitch.
If the Senate remains Republican and Biden wins the presidency, Biden will be the first president since George Bush Sr. takes office without having the entire Congress on his side. This could be a problem, in the first place because the Senate approves most government appointments: even if it is just to appoint the secretary of state or any other minister, Biden will need the approval of the Senate. All executive and judicial appointments go through the Senate. Not to mention the plans, so far incomplete, to increase the number of Supreme Court justices. A Republican-controlled branch of Congress, of course, could cause a deadlock or even a sharp slowdown in legislative activity, a bit like it did in six of the eight years of the Barack Obama presidency.
To the camera
Currently in the House the Democrats have a majority of 233-201, and on Tuesday it was voted to renew the entire assembly. As with the Senate, Democrats in the House had high hopes of expanding their majority. Polls indicated a potential gain of around 10 MPs.
There are still about 40 seats to fill, but for now, Republicans have done better, getting eight seats previously held by Democrats, including in some districts, like Florida and South Carolina, where Democrats hoped to win. There are still many races to be decided, but it is likely that, in the end, the Democratic representatives in the House will be between five and ten less. This means that the Democrats will retain the majority of the House, for which 218 seats are sufficient, but which will be a little tighter.
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Some defeats by Democrats have been particularly tough. Some MPs who were elected for the first time in 2018 and who were part of the so-called “blue wave” that led the Democrats to conquer the House have been defeated, such as Joe Cunningham in South Carolina, Abby Finkenauer in Iowa and especially Donna Shalala in Florida. The latter had been Secretary of Health during Bill Clinton’s presidency, had run for the House in 2018, had won a Republican-controlled seat.
However, there is also good news for Democrats: the four participants in the so-called “Squad”, left-wing and often counter-current MPs heavily criticized by Trump and widely talked about in the newspapers, were re-elected with margins of more than 30 percent . one hundred. The most famous of them is Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the others are Ilhan Omar, Ayanna Pressley and Rashida Tlaib. In addition, the first two gay African-American MPs, both in New York, have been elected: they are Ritchie Torres and Mondaire Jones.
If the Democratic majority in the House shrinks but remains strong, there should be no particular political consequences, although House Speaker Nancy Pelosi may have a more difficult time getting the party elected again to this position. While writing Politician, many deputies were disappointed with the performance of the party and internal struggles cannot be ruled out.
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