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The second wave of the pandemic in Spain came long before us. Observing how the virus moves in those parts may teach us something, even if the contagion curve follows unpredictable paths in different countries.
To understand how the virus moves, and what restrictions, if any, to take, one of the indicators to look at more carefully is the percentage of beds occupied in intensive care, because it is on this front that we understand whether the health system can endure or not (COVID: LIVE UPDATES – THE SPECIAL). What does the example of the countries where the second wave broke before us tell us?
In Spain more infections but intensive care endure
deepening
World coronavirus, 10 countries with more cases in 24 hours: 5 Europeans, there is Italy
Let’s take Spain. The positive rate has been consistently above 10% for more than a month. An average not yet reached in Italy (THE LAST BULLETIN – THE GRAPHICS). In the same period of time, the number of places occupied in intensive care has increased, but without rebound, from just over 15 to 21%. It is a national average: some regions (such as Madrid) are well above it. But in general, the rate is not yet at the levels that trigger the alert (here the threshold is 30%). It is true that in the meantime 550 more jobs have been created in Spain, but even without these the rate would be 23.4%, even here below the alarm threshold.
Covid, how many intensive care places can we count on?
deepening
Covid, the trend of intensive care in Italy. THE DATA
In Italy we are now close to 15% as the intensive care occupancy rate (THE SITUATION). So, can we expect that, if things follow the Spanish rhythms, in a month we will still be far from the alarm levels? It depends. Spain can count on many more intensive care beds than we do: it has almost 9,000, or about 20 per 100,000 inhabitants. Here, for a larger population, they are just over 6,600. They correspond to around 11 per 100,000 inhabitants. In proportion almost half of those in Spain. We would approach Madrid levels if, for example, we activated all the beds provided for by the relaunch decree and converted the semi-intensive therapies. In short, the battle to avoid new restrictions also involves the ability of the health system to expand the availability of beds and personnel in intensive care. And the Spanish example does not necessarily reassure us.
