what Lombardy, Piedmont and Calabria risk

Piedmont, Lombarida and Calabria are the three regions that run the risk of a total blockade with the new Dpcm that Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte should launch today, Tuesday, November 3. One of the highlights of the provision is the curfew, for which times ranging from 20 to 23 are at stake, although the prime minister who left the Senate yesterday spoke of “late at night.”

Curfew, school and travel: the risks of Lombardy, Piedmont and Calabria

In the new Dpcm there will be a national framework, with interventions valid throughout Italy, and measures for individual territories, with the country divided into 3 bands that correspond to so many risk scenarios identified with “scientific and objective” criteria approved by the Higher Institute. Healthcare: the greater the spread of the virus, the more the health system suffers, the greater the restrictions. The Ansa news agency explained yesterday that seven types of interventions are at stake that will affect the entire country:

• the closure of shopping centers on holidays and days before holidays, with the exception of essential activities in the interior (pharmacies, parapharmacies, food, tobacconists and kiosks);
• the closure of ‘corners’ used for betting and gaming activities wherever they are located, therefore no more slot machines in bars and tobacconists;
• the closure of all museums and exhibitions;
• the reduction of the filling capacity of buses and subways of local public transport with the capacity ranging from 80% to 50%, a measure requested for months by the Scientific Technical Committee to reduce the spread of the infection;
• 100% distance education for secondary schools, therefore for secondary schools, even if the formula used by the prime minister in Parliament – “even in its entirety” – does not clarify whether it is an obligation or an option left to the institutions. Kindergarten, elementary and middle schools, on the other hand, will continue to be present, unless they are in areas where more limitations will be triggered due to a higher level of risk;
• the limit to travel to and from those regions that have high risk coefficients, which can only be waived for proven work needs, study reasons, health and needs;
• curfew

Within this framework of interventions, and even if the ordinance that will order the total closure must be signed after the launch of the Dpcm by the Minister of Health Roberto Speranza, in the first strip will be the Regions considered “higher risk”, therefore those in which the situation is compatible with the one hypothesized in ‘scenario 4’ of the ISS document: an Rt greater than 1.5 and an “uncontrolled transmissibility” of Covid.

The new Dpcm today November 3: what it measures for all of Italy

Regions at risk of closure

With the current data, Piedmont, Lombardy, both with Rt above 2, and Calabria would end, but the situation could change: in the next few hours, updated monitoring data will be available, with the CTS meeting to analyze them in order to deliver to the government the most current photograph of the epidemiological situation in Italy. This is the range in which the most restrictive measures are envisaged: from local closures at the provincial level for at least 3 weeks to the limitation of individual mobility until the closure of the entire Region with the exception of essential activities. Taking this into account, the plan for the Scenario 4 regions foresees for now:

• shopping center closes on Saturdays and Sundays, but essential activities will remain open while gambling, lottery and arcade activities, as well as museums, will close; In discussion are the measures for restaurants, barbers, hairdressers and beauticians;
• limitation to 50% of public transport capacity;
• possible travel restrictions between municipalities;
• curfew at 9 pm and not at 11 pm;

The logic of this last rule is explained today by Il Fatto Quotidiano: there will be “limits for the movement of people in the late afternoon”, as Giuseppe Conte said yesterday in Parliament: the compromise seems to be at 9:00 p.m. Palazzo Chigi is still pushing to bring it to 22, and it has a very specific reason.

We must avoid that, with the restaurants closed, people meet to dine with friends and family. Household contagion, as is known, is currently the most frequent form of spread of the virus and all those social situations in which the mask and distancing are lowered should be prohibited.

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The school remains closed for now, in the sense that in the rest of Italy the government plans to bring distance learning to 100% from secondary school. But there is still a window to leave even third graders at home.

Scenario 4: the map of the areas at risk