[ad_1]
In recent days, there has been a lot of talk about the scenarios hypothesized by the Ministry of Health and the Higher Institute of Health in relation to the coronavirus emergency and the winter season. Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, explaining the latest restrictive measures introduced, explained that the country would find itself in a situation like the one described in scenario 3. He then underlined that the closure measures implemented are in line with those envisaged by scientists. The curve, however, is rapidly worsening and according to the latest weekly monitoring of the ISS and the ministry at least five regions have already moved to the fourth scenario, the most serious. But, what measures correspond to this scenario? What will close if the epidemiological situation does not improve?
What is the type 4 scenario?
“The epidemic in Italy is getting even worse, with a number of new cases reported that almost doubled compared to the week of October 12-18, 2020 (100,446 cases compared to 52,960 cases in the previous week), still consistent in general with a type 3 scenario, but evolving towards a type 4 scenario. It should be noted that in some Italian regions the transmission speed is already compatible with a scenario 4 with the risk that health services will be maintained in the short term“We read in the ISS monitoring. A type 4 scenario occurs when I Regional Rt values are predominantly and significantly above 1.5, with a rapid and enormous growth of new cases, clear signs of overload for the health service and the impossibility of tracing the origin of infections. In other words, a situation in which the contagion curve is no longer under control.
Restrictions to adopt: what closes
Once you enter a Type 4 scenario, you will go from moderate risk to high risk in a few weeks. Initially, the experts recommend intervening with greater controls than the anti-contagion measures already introduced, also providing stricter precautions in specific, higher risk contexts, such as schools. Then there is the “possibility of closing activities, suspension of events and limitation of population mobility in subregional geographic areas (municipalities / provinces)“If these measures fail to bend the contagion curve, however, the level of risk would increase.
These are the interventions that, according to scientists and health authorities, should be implemented to face a type 4 scenario:
- Physical distancing: ex. close nightclubs, bars, restaurants (initially, potentially only at specific times, for example in the afternoon / evening to avoid “nightlife”)
- School / university closure (incremental: class, plexus, on a geographic basis based on epidemiological situation)
- Mobility restrictions (from / to high transmission areas and possible restoration of agile work in specific areas.
- Local restrictions subprovincial scale (red areas) for at least 3 weeks with careful monitoring during the reopening phase. If a relatively low incidence and Rt <1.2 are not maintained at the mean value for at least 3 weeks after reopening, assess the need for restoration with possible geographic extent.
The measures to be implemented when the risk becomes high
If, in the weeks after this type of intervention, the infections continue to grow, thus moving the risk level from high to very high, extraordinary measures would be necessary. “Generalized restrictions with extension and duration to be defined with respect to the epidemiological scenario; in case of localized restrictions, mobility limitations to and from the areas in question“, we still read in the ISS report.
Anti-contagion rules must constantly adapt to the curve
However, measures should always be adapted according to the epidemiological trend. A situation with a moderate risk level would remain that way for about 4 consecutive weeks, but it should always be subject to constant monitoring, to be always ready to intervene in case of an escalation. Then you could move to a high risk level: “If the high-risk situation persists for a period of more than three weeks, very aggressive containment measures will most likely be required.“And if the risk rating remained high or very high.”for 3 or more weeks consecutive, as evidence of a situation that cannot be handled with extraordinary measures already implemented“, broader restrictions should be defined.
[ad_2]
