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With the resignation of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, a new era begins for Japan and for the Liberal Democrats, the party that has dominated its politics almost continuously since 1955. Abe has been the longest-serving prime minister in the United States so far. The history of democratic Japan and Japan’s longest-running successor – a remarkable achievement considering that between 2007 and 2012, between their first and second terms, five different prime ministers had taken turns. As with all charismatic and popular leaders, it will not be easy to find a successor in Abe’s case and the person who is ultimately elected will have the difficult task of trying to achieve what Abe failed to achieve.
Shinzo Abe’s legacy
In his editorial on Abe’s resignation, Wall street journal, the leading free-market financial newspaper, summed up their political action as a “multi-front campaign to transform Japan into a more normal country.” Abe, in fact, has introduced or attempted to introduce large and ambitious reforms in different fields.
The economic ones, brought together in the so-called Abenomics, have been the most successful: Abe has carried out a series of liberalizations and promoted a wide granting of credit to reactivate consumption and increase inflation, particularly after the damage caused by the tsunami of 2011 For many critics, however, it has not done enough, despite the fact that Japan is the third largest economy in the world and the unemployment rate has fallen significantly: GDP growth is modest, the inflation rate has remained. lower than planned and the country has a large public debt. And the coronavirus pandemic has brought new problems, including the postponement of the Tokyo Olympics, for which Abe had spent a lot of money.
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Regarding political reforms, it has facilitated immigration to Japan from abroad, historically very limited but considered increasingly important due to the high rate of aging of the population. In foreign policy, Abe has improved relations with important foreign allies, particularly with the United States and Australia, although he has failed to prevent Donald Trump from pulling the United States out of the Trans-Pacific Agreement (TPP), an important agreement. international trade. It also failed to close the dispute with Russia over the Kuril Islands, nor diplomatically resolve disagreements with South Korea on international treaties signed after World War II. Its main failure, however, was not to modify article 9 of the Constitution, which prohibits the country from having a royal army. Whoever takes Abe’s place will have to try to carry this project forward, among other things.
How Abe’s Successor Will Be Chosen
Had he not resigned for health reasons, Abe would have had to remain the prime minister of Japan and the chairman of the Japanese Liberal Democrats until September 2021. In announcing his early retirement, he said he will remain in office until the party does. choose. a successor.
Normally the leaders of the Liberal Democrats are chosen with the primaries, in which half of the elective power belongs to the members of the party, who are more than a million, and the other half to those elected in the parliament. However, given that Abe resigned before the end of his term, the party has an alternative to elect its new leader: in an emergency, its statute allows the successor to vote only with the votes of the parliamentarians, and three representatives for each. of the deputies. 47 prefectures, that is, the administrative bodies into which Japan is divided, for a total of 535 voters.
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On Friday, Liberal Democrat General Secretary Toshihiro Nikai said the party has not yet decided which of the two paths to take, but according to Japanese political experts it is highly likely that a short election will be held, with a subsequent vote if no candidate wins the elections. elections. first round more than 50 percent of the vote.
Once the party has decided who will be the new leader, his appointment as prime minister will be subject to a vote by parliament during an extraordinary session, during which Abe will have to formally resign. It could all happen in September if the Liberal Democrats rush to elect their new leader. Since the party has a majority in parliament, the opposition does not have the means to prevent the new leader of the Liberal Democrats from taking Abe’s place as prime minister. However, this does not necessarily mean, explains the New York Timesthat the next head of government will be allowed to remain in office until the end of his term: apart from Abe’s last few years in office, Japan has had very short and unstable governments.
Possible candidates to lead the Liberal Democrats
The names of various politicians who could aspire to replace Abe and be elected to succeed him have been mentioned in Japanese and international newspapers, and some have already said they will step up. One is former Foreign Minister Kishida Fumio, who would be a conservative option for the party, safe in the short term, although he may not be the most suitable for the 2021 elections: he is not particularly popular.
Another prudent option would be that of the current Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance, Taro Aso, who has served as Prime Minister in the past, despite the fact that his leadership of the Liberal Democrats had ended with the worst electoral result in the history of the match. Abe also had little success at the time of his first term, so Aso’s former failure should not be an insurmountable obstacle to his eventual election.
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Another minister who could try to replace Abe is the ambitious and charismatic Defense Minister Taro Kono, who, however, may be too divisive for the party because some of his views contrast with those of the majority. According to a survey by a news agency KyodoEnvironment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, who is 39 years old and known primarily as the husband of popular TV host Christel Takigawa, would be the second most respected politician as Abe’s successor, but he is unlikely to be elected because he has little experience and in the past. he criticized some positions of the party.
First in the same poll is Yoshihide Suga, 71, a highly respected and respected member of the Liberal Democrats, considered Abe’s right-hand man. In recent months, he has been less involved in important decisions, especially those related to handling the pandemic, and in a recent interview he said he would not be willing to succeed Abe. But in recent days his name has been heavily promoted by the Japanese media, according to which he could be the favorite.
Finally, the names of Shigeru Ishiba, who in the 2012 primaries had been defeated by Abe by a narrow margin, and who in 2015 had created a current of opposition within the party, and that of Tomomi Inada, the only woman from the list, they were named. that he has extreme right-wing positions; if elected, she would be the first woman to become Prime Minister of Japan.
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