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What would a Biden win mean for Italy? Probably in the short term we would not see big differences, but if we look at the medium-term outlook, we could talk about the reunion of two old friends, who meet again after not seeing each other for quite some time.
If he wins, Biden should first study a reaction to the Covid crisis, re-entrusting America’s fate to science, rebuilding trust in the national health system, and establishing a vaccination program, hitherto sabotaged by theorists of the conspiracy and not vax. Therefore, his priorities would all be domestic policy.
It should then address the economic consequences of the pandemic and develop support measures for the unemployed and businesses. In addition, he would face the challenge of rebuilding the machinery of the US government, after four years in which officials and administrators have been scientifically marginalized to favor people considered loyal to the president, perhaps without specific training. To put it briefly, all your attention would be on America: the rest of the world should, at least initially, be content with a spectator seat.
Americans who live abroad, like me, would perceive an even more than fundamental change in tone: from “America First” enunciated by Trump in his inauguration speech in 2016 to “America is back,” America is back. . This does not mean a 360-degree change: there are points in foreign policy that Republicans and Democrats agree on, such as security issues and the need to take a tough stance on China.
But Biden would likely pursue these goals by forming an international coalition: His foreign policy would be based more on diplomacy and intelligence than on personal relationships and letters written directly to presidents and dictators. Certainly, a Biden administration, as it already was for the Obama administration, would show less respect for authoritarian or populist politicians like the various Vladimir Putin, Recep Erdogan, Kim Jong Un, Viktor Orban, Narendra Modi, Jair Bolsanaro, Mohamed Bin Salman. and Abdel Fatah al Sisi.
Biden’s men have already announced some foreign policy priorities: a return to the Paris climate accords and a commitment to climate change, for example. And in the long term, the launch of a “new green deal” capable of influencing the industrial and commercial choices of the United States for years, potentially offering many benefits to Italy and the entire environmental innovation sector that is taking place here . developing. Biden has also already said that he is ready to lead the United States back to the side of the World Health Organization (WHO) in the fight against the coronavirus.
In terms of trade, Italy did not underperform during the Trump administration. In 2019, the United States was the third country to receive exports from Italy, for a total of 48,500 million euros, only surpassed by Germany and France. However, the tariffs on imports from the European Union imposed by Trump: Biden will have a more pragmatic trade policy towards his allies, trying not to create tensions. And if there are penalties, it certainly won’t announce them on Twitter.
On the security side, Biden can be expected to return the United States to a leadership and constructive role within NATO. But Trump’s tough tone on the economic contributions each member country should make to the Alliance may not have been in vain: Biden is unlikely to use the same formulas, but it would not be surprising if he kept asking member countries to increase. yours. contribution.
As for Russia, reports of interference in areas like the Middle East, and Syria in particular, are likely to be higher under the Biden administration than ever during the Trump years, and this will not happen. they have no influence in the Mediterranean and in countries like Italy that overlook this part of the world.
Instead, a more direct impact will have the decisions that Biden will make about Iran and its allies, first of all Hezbollah in Lebanon: there are around 10 thousand Italian soldiers engaged in the Unifil mission in South Lebanon and if there will be a change in regional balance. they will be among the first to suffer. On nuclear energy, Biden has pledged to realign the United States with the other 5 countries plus 1 if Iran respects the terms of the non-proliferation agreement signed under the Obama administration: it is not certain that this will be enough to defuse the fight against created Americans. in Iran as in Iraq for the execution of the commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, Qassem Soleimani.
The policy of support for Israel will not change: the US embassy will remain in Jerusalem, where Trump has moved it, and will not return to Tel Aviv, but Biden has promised not to support the annexation of Palestinian territories.
Another issue that could interest Italy is immigration, an issue that his country and Europe as a whole have been measuring for years: as a candidate, Biden said he will modify the Muslim ban, the law Trump wants to prevent citizens from from some Muslim countries go to the United States, and that he will renounce the project, so dear to Trump, to build a wall between the United States and Mexico.
Biden is likely to refrain from publicly blessing countries that systematically violate human rights: for example, he vowed to end US support for the war in Yemen waged by Saudi Arabia and its allies. We can expect increased sanctions for those who violate human rights: something that could force some countries, such as Italy, to align with the US ally’s elections.
Among so many assumptions, there is some element of certainty: the first is that if Biden is elected president against a geographical map, he could tell where Italy is positioned. The second is that if they put a list of three names in front of him, he would probably know which of them is the current prime minister. In short, it would return to a normal diplomatic relationship, without the two o’clock tweets to dictate the agenda.
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