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Editorial Board
November 10, 2020 2:57 PM
It has not finished. Four other regions may soon pass through the area yellow to that Orange. To take stock of the epidemic situation in Italy was the president of the Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Silvio Brusaferro, during the press conference on data analysis of the regional monitoring of the control room. “On the basis of the latest monitoring, there are 4 regions that are heading towards a high risk and in which the most restrictive measures should be anticipated.” According to the president of the ISS, Italy is in a “high-risk situation with the need for mitigation measures, that is, social measures to curb the virus.” Also because, he explained, “the hospitalization curve is very steep, growing rapidly, and also the employment percentages are rapidly approaching critical thresholds, even for intensive care” which in fact in some regions “are already exceeded.”
The other four regions that go towards the orange zone
Formerly president of the Superior Council of Health, Franco Locatelli, highlighted that “there are two regions of the country that have a bed occupancy of more than 30%, according to an evaluation firm as of November 1, and two other regions are at 29%. One of these regions is significantly populated and equipped with of intensive care that in some areas of the province are less pressured and can help those who are in greater difficulty at this time ”.
What regions does Brusaferro refer to when he talks about 4 regions at risk? According to data from Agenas (updated to November 9), among the regions of the yellow zone the situation of intensive therapy is particularly worrisome in Emilia romagna, where 36% of the places are occupied by Covid patients, in Campania (32%) and Sardinia (34%), while the data from Friuli Venezia Giulia stands at 26%. But as is well known, the “algorithm” with which the passage from one area to another is decreed is based on 21 parameters and the occupation of beds in intensive care is not the only indicator to take into account.
What are the regions that risk the orange zone?
The truth is that the president of the ISS Not specific which are the territories that could change color. Yesterday, many newspapers had included Emilia-Romagna, Veneto and Campania in the category of regions at risk, but against all odds they remained in yellow. In the specific case of Campania, Brusaferro said that he believes that the data sent by the region are “valid”, specifying that in-depth studies are being carried out “to capture aspects that could complete an ongoing analysis.” None of the three options can be excluded a priori: the confirmation of the yellow zone, the passage to the orange zone or the double jump to the red zone. In any case, according to Brusaferro, “almost all the Regions have a high or moderate risk”. According to “Repubblica”, in addition to Campania, the president of the ISS also refers to Friuli Venezia Giulia, Emila Romagna and Veneto and “that is, to the regions still in the yellow zone that have a high Rt, higher than 1.5 What places on the stage are more worrying. Keeping them still yellow is the risk factor still considered moderate. But his situation is under the watchful eye of the control room.
Brusaffero: “The Rt index grows more slowly”
The good news is not lacking. The president of the ISS stressed that thanks to the containment measures adopted “RT is growing more slowly: at the national level we are at 1.7, with a confidence interval of 1.5. This tells us that the country is in a scenario 3 “. However, we are not in a “viral regression” phase. To control the Covid situation, “the Rt index must be below 1” across the country. According to the latest ISS report for the week of October 26 to November 1, 2020 (data updated to November 9, 2020), “in the period from October 15 to 28, 2020, the RT calculated on symptomatic cases is equal to 1.72 “and” There are mean Rt values greater than 1.5 in most Italian regions / AP and greater than one in all regions / AP “.
In particular, from the analysis of the data, it appears that Lombardy has exceeded 2 (Rt at 2.08), while Basilicata (Rt at 1.99) and Piedmont (Rt at 1.97) are approaching that threshold, followed by Molise (1.88) and the province of Bolzano (1.87). Liguria (1.48) Sicilia (1.4), Lazio (1.36), Marche (1.29) Sardinia (1.24) are below 1.5.
Edit: No new ordinance is expected. The Ansa agency is aware of this in reference to the identification of 4 regions for which, based on the latest monitoring, it would be convenient to anticipate more restrictive measures. The sources explain that the monitoring data led yesterday to an ordinance already signed by Minister Speranza and “no other ordinances are foreseen before continuing with the monitoring results.”
