WEATHER TREND – first projections until FIRST OF OCTOBER «3B Meteo



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MID-TERM TREND 14-20 SEPTEMBER – At the European level, according to the latest modeling, we noted for this period pressures and geopotentials well above the norm in north-central Europe, with a marginal interest also from Italy, especially the Centronord. On the other hand, below-average pressures and geopotentials are evident in the southern Mediterranean but above all just west of the Iberian Peninsula. This situation highlights the trend towards blocked traffic, with bad weather at times in south-west Europe. Often a stable and decidedly very hot climate during the period in most of north-central Europe, but largely also in northern Italy and part of central. On the other hand, the south could be affected by greater variability at times, induced by the circulation of the depression in the southern Mediterranean, to a much more marginal extent also Abruzzo and Lazio. However, it would be localized instability with some showers or storms, in a still hot climate. Definitely uncommon heat in Centronord. A possible modest deterioration of the West around September 19-20 to be assessed

Geopotential anomalies at 500 hPa according to the ECMWF model averaged over the period from 14 to 20 September
Geopotential anomalies at 500 hPa according to the ECMWF model averaged over the period from 14 to 20 September

LONG-TERM TREND 21-27 SEPTEMBER – At the European level, there are still positive geopotential anomalies in northern Europe, but with a tendency to geopotentials beyond the norm also in the lower Mediterranean and southern Italy. At this stage, the weather should often remain stable in the south, with above-average heat. Sometimes unstable instead in the north, especially in the northwest, and more marginally in the center, in any case also here with temperatures often higher than the average for the period, although to a lesser extent than in the first part of September.

Geopotential anomalies at 500 hPa according to the ECMWF model averaged during the period from 21 to 27 September
Geopotential anomalies at 500 hPa according to the ECMWF model averaged during the period from 21 to 27 September

LONG-TERM TREND SEPTEMBER 28 – OCTOBER 4 – According to the latest modeling numbers, the trend of the previous period would be reversed with a trend to geopotentials below the norm in central Europe. In this phase we could have a decidedly more unstable and dynamic climate in Centronord, with more moments of rain. More stable in the south than in the Centronord, but also here during some stormy passage. Temperatures sometimes still above average in Centrosud, on average in the North. Evolution to be confirmed.

 Geopotential anomalies at 500 hPa according to the ECMWF model averaged over the period from September 28 to October 4
Geopotential anomalies at 500 hPa according to the ECMWF model averaged over the period from September 28 to October 4

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