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Forecast – A rather stubborn modeling framework, in the morning update, proposing cold Scandinavian action towards the central Mediterranean and Italy starting Friday the 20th and continuing through the coming weekend. The great world models, the American GFS and the European ECMWF, in their official deterministic perspective, show, in fact, a descent of cold air of Baltic origin, in the heart of the Mediterranean and near Italy after crossing the East. / Northeast Europe. All this would take place in a classic winter configuration, with high pressure in the elevation of the meridian over Western Europe and Eastern Mediterranean, extending with a promontory to the United Kingdom and, on the other hand, a cold air sac from the Baltic-Scandinavian sectors in action in central and eastern Europe and along the anticyclonic eastern flank. The looting axis, according to the schemes proposed this morning, would affect the central Mediterranean, where a low pressure fed by cold air would form. In accordance with these patterns, bad winter weather would occur, especially in the central-south regions and even more so in the south of Italy, areas more exposed to the cold flow from the north.
However, there are still many uncertainties, as it obviously is, regarding an expected event in 4/5 days, but even more uncertainties still linked to a stubborn North Atlantic zonal flow that could still affect the anticyclonic promontory of several ways by weakening or stimulating the cold influx of the Baltic-Scandinavian sectors. Before considering the results of this cold air descent, which in any case would not be very cold, however capable of causing some snow up to mountainous altitudes in the central Apennines according to current schemes, we prefer to wait for some more modeling emissions. In general terms, we would like to reiterate that the most severe bad weather could affect southern Italy and the middle Adriatic; Recurrent rains in the rest of the South Central, but in a more irregular way, less instability in the northern regions, more downwind than the type of baric configuration expected. However, we remind you that confirmations are needed throughout the structure as many things could still change. The MeteoWeb editorial team will constantly follow the evolution of the expected weather for the course of this week, making daily updates.
To monitor the weather situation instead, here are the best pages of the Nowcasting:
Weather forecast, bad weather returns to Italy: rains and storms from Monday 16 to Wednesday 18
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