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CORONAVIRUS: WEATHER FORECAST in CHAOS due to COVID-19. The REASON is surprising
Fewer planes flying due to pandemic, less accurate weather forecaststhe coronavirus, In addition to causing economic and health problems, it is even affecting forecast, making them a little less accurate.
But what correlations are there really between COVID-19 and the weather? The largest meteorological data comes to us from satellites and ofAmdar, (Relay of aircraft meteorological data), or a program launched byWorld Meteorological Organization and used for collect weather data around the world, through passenger aircraft at various altitudes, during continental and intercontinental travel. The daily reports produced in this way are in the thousands and are essential and necessary to accurately understand the direction of currents and the trend of temperatures, especially at a certain altitude.
Fewer aircraft at altitude, due to restrictions and lower frequency of commercial flights, obviously means less data available to produce weather forecasts, which are therefore less accurate than normal.
In this regard, a report from the European Center for Medium-Term Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) drawn up in the middle of the first reported wave various aircraft reports were down 65% as of March 31 (in Europe), compared to March 3 and the global reports drop 42%.
L ‘ECMWF claimed that the deletion of all aircraft data worsens temperature and short-range predictions around the flow level of the polar jet up to 15% with a sharp decline also in all forecast ranges up to seven days.
And that’s not all: theWorld Meteorological Organization He is increasingly concerned, because as aircraft observations decrease, even in the near future the forecasts could be much less reliable, as if the availability of data collectors or spare parts decreases.
The prospect of a second wave of infections in Europe is therefore very worrying also from a forecast point of view. It may be made us think this is a small thing, but it is not: just think about the season of Atlantic hurricanes or gods twister, two extreme events that require constantly updated and highly “refined” data.
CORONAVIRUS and METEO, less accurate forecasts
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