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37,242 infected and 699 dead. Currently in Italy there are 777,176 citizens with active infection (here the newsletter). The only “positive” figure today is represented by the intensive care balance, 36 units more than yesterday: it is a declining figure compared to the trend of recent weeks. The intensive care units currently employed in our hospitals amount to 3,748: this number takes into account both entries and exits and, therefore, also depends on the patients recovered or deceased.
“The number of new positives is slightly higher than yesterday, but the fluctuations between one day and the next are not significant. We are facing a stabilization of new positives. Almost 700 deaths is a high number, it is not a reassuring data The deaths are always many, “he said. Gianni rezza, Director of Prevention of the Ministry of Health.
Infections increase even with fewer swabs done
Coronavirus infections in Italy are increasing: in the last 24 hours, the new cases reported in the Civil Protection bulletin and the Ministry of Health are 37,242. Yesterday, Thursday, November 19, the new infections identified were 36,176. Today’s figure is presented against 238,077 swabs analyzed, for a total of 19,962,604 tests performed since the start of monitoring. The day before, the increase in tampons had been 250,186.
After days of decline, the ratio of swabs / positive cases rose again: today the figure stands at 15.6%, yesterday at 14.4%. Dramatic data in Lombardy: today there were 9,221 cases of coronavirus and 175 deaths. The swabs performed were 42,248, for a total of 3,724,757. Yesterday, out of 37,595 swabs, there were 7,453 infections and 165 deaths.
As always on Twitter, Lorenzo Ruffino compares the data for the current week with the previous weeks:
Cases between Monday and Friday
- this week: 167,245
- last week: 172,210
- two weeks ago: 153,361
- three weeks ago: 121,912
- four weeks ago: 70,633
Change from the average of the last four weeks
Cases between Monday and Friday
– this week: 167,245
– last week: 172,210
– two weeks ago: 153,361
– three weeks ago: 121,912
– four weeks ago: 70,633Change from the average of the last four weeks
– almost: + 29%
– shock absorbers: + 16%– Lorenzo Ruffino (@Ruffino_Lorenzo) November 20, 2020
The positive / swab ratio
The ratio of tampons to positive cases today is back at 15.6 (yesterday it was 14.6). These are the weekly data:
Positivity rate (swabs performed) between Monday and Friday
- this week: 15.4%
- last week: 15.9%
- two weeks ago: 15.6%
- three weeks ago: 13.3%
- four weeks ago: 9.1%
Positivity rate (people tested) between Monday and Friday
- this week: 28.7%
- last week: 27.6%
- two weeks ago: 25.8%
- three weeks ago: 21.9%
- four weeks ago: 14.7%
Hospital admissions and Rt index in the regions
The situation in hospitals is far from reassuring. “There are 18 Regions that as of November 17 had exceeded at least a critical threshold in the medical or intensive care area – read the draft of the new monitoring of the ISS and the Ministry of Health -. If current transmissibility is maintained, almost all autonomous regions and provinces have a probability greater than 50% of exceeding at least one of these thresholds in the next month ”.
“If on the one hand we see lightning, on the other we have to endure. The rates of beds and intensive care are not positive. Hospitals will continue to suffer for weeks,” said Gianni Rezza.
The Rt contagion index, on the other hand, is decreasing: the weekly data updated to November 18 set it this week at 1.18, therefore still above 1, a sign that the epidemic continues to grow, but in any case. case in marked decline. Just think that last week it was 1.43, two weeks ago it was 1.72. Here the value of the Rt index in the Italian regions:
- Abruzzo 1.32
- Basilicata 1.46
- Calabria 1.06
- Campania 1.11
- Emilia-Romagna 1.14
- Lazio 0.82
- Liguria 0.89
- Lombardy 1.15
- Molise 0.94
- Piedmont 1.09
- Bolzano Province 1.16
- Province of Trento 1.03
- Apulia 1.24
- Sardinia 0.79
- Sicily, 1.14
- Tuscany 1.31
- Umbria 1.06
- Val d’Aosta 1.14.
The Rt index reduction, says the report of the Higher Institute of Health, suggests “an initial effect of the mitigation measures introduced at the national and regional level as of October 14, 2020.” However, given that transmissibility in most of the territory continues to be with an Rt above 1 and implies an increase in new cases, “this trend should not lead to a relaxation of measures or a decrease in attention in behaviors “.
Especially since according to the ISS almost all regions “are still classified as being at high risk of an uncontrolled and unmanageable epidemic in the territory or at moderate risk with a high probability of progressing to high risk in the coming weeks. In particular, 17 regions “are classified as high risk for SarsCov2 transmission.”
The situation in hospitals
According to data from Agenas (National Agency for Regional Health Services), in Italy 41% of the places available in intensive care are occupied by Covid patients, but the figure rises to 50% for patients in the non-critical area. In Lombardy and Piedmont, the figure for intensive care is respectively 65 and 62%, in Liguria 54%. Despite being in the orange zone, Basilicata has a bed occupancy percentage that is not particularly critical, although in any case above the risk threshold (34% in the medical area and 31% in intensive care). In Sicily, Covid patients in intensive care are 41% of the total, but the percentage rises to 50% for those hospitalized in a non-critical area. It is worse in Umbria, where patients in intensive care occupy 59% of the total of places and 51% of the beds in the non-critical area.
In the orange zone are also the Marks, where Covid patients in intensive care and non-critical areas are, respectively, 43 and 45%. Emilia Romagna is doing better, another region in the orange zone, where 35% of intensive care positions and 46% of those in the medical area are occupied. In Friuli Venezia Giulia only 27% of the intensive care places and 38% of the beds in the medical area are occupied.
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