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With a little delay compared to other areas of the country, but between today and tomorrow we should reach the peak of infections also in Sicily and then, according to the statistical model developed by a group of researchers from the University of Palermo, finally the curve should start to descend. The worst, therefore, for this second wave should almost be over: this is demonstrated by the trend of the epidemic both at the national level and in some of the most affected regions, such as Campania and Lombardy, where, again according to the study of the Economy, business and statistics: the decline has already started about ten days ago.
The team made up of Vito Muggeo, Andrea Consiglio, Gianluca Sottile, Vincenzo Genova, Giorgio Bertolazzi and Mariano Porcu has just been included in the statistical model (which can be consulted at this link) also forecasts. Of course, it is not yet possible to precisely establish the speed with which the number of Covid positives will decrease day by day on the island, but according to a first estimate, which must be taken with due precautions, around December 10 in Sicily. it should decrease. fewer than a thousand new cases a day (compared to almost 1,700 today) and come to Christmas with just over 400 new positives a day.
Today’s Bulletin: 1,249 New Infections
Therefore, we are beginning to see the effects of the restrictions and closures implemented since last month, but – it must be reiterated – these positive signals should not be read as “free all”: the curve will only go down significantly if they continue to comply with the fundamental rules to fight the virus, that is, wear a mask, keep physical distance and wash your hands frequently.
At this time, Sicily continues to have worse data than those of other regions and especially to make fewer swabs. The percentage of positives in the cases analyzed is 27.6 percent (in Italy it is 28.4). The Rt index is 1.15 (which drops to 1.09 if “adjusted” for the number of swabs performed). In some provinces However, although the disaggregated data are less reliable, the curve has already started to decline: these are Messina, Ragusa and Siracusa.
According to the statistical model, at the national level, the peak should have been reached on November 12, with 37,977 new infections in one day, and yesterday, the date of the last survey, the decline in the curve was well advanced (28,337 new positives registered) . If this trend is confirmed, at Christmas the new daily cases should be just over 2,000. At the moment, the national RT is 1.02 which, if “adjusted” based on the swabs performed, reduces to 1.
According to the university study, Campania is also already in the decline phase: the peak would have been reached on November 13 with 4,079 new infections, while yesterday the new positives were 3,217. Again, if the model’s predictions are confirmed, Christmas should arrive with just over 100 new cases per day. The data for the Rt index in Campania are even better than the national ones: 0.95 which, if “adjusted” on the basis of the swabs carried out, drops to 0.89.
Finally, just to make another comparison, even in Lombardy the data is comforting: the peak should have been reached in this case on the 13th as well, with 10,634 new cases, while yesterday they were less than half, 5,094. According to the forecast of the Palermo research team, around 560 new cases should arrive at Christmas. Right now, the Rt index is 0.86 which, once “adjusted”, however, rises to 1.01.
