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The number of infections will probably decrease in a month, month and a half. “First we will see a slowdown, then a flattening and then a decrease, but not in fifteen days”, explains Walter Ricciardi. The health minister’s consultant, Roberto Speranza, had for some time been calling for more restrictive measures appropriate to the level of spread of the virus in individual territories. The day the new Dpcm came into force, he stressed that “patience and perseverance will be needed” and that “two weeks are not enough to stop the curve and without a doubt they are to reverse it. When it closes, as it happened in Wuhan and then here in March, the data takes time to stabilize. “
On October 7, he declared: at this rate, in two months we will be 16 thousand new cases. After thirty days we are more than double. What went wrong, Professor Ricciardi?
Fighting a pandemic means acting quickly in the right way and at the right time. We must not pursue but anticipate the virus, the inspiring principle of the five-point plan made public by the minister on April 6, sadly implemented almost everywhere poorly and in some regions not at all. If we had acted on October 7, we would have handled the epidemic better.
Also on October 7 he said: “We are on the razor blade.” Where are we now?
At the razor, we are suffering injuries. In order not to skin ourselves, we must respect the strong measures taken, designed to mitigate that is to reduce the damage.
In short, has time been wasted?
Yep.
Today the new Dpcm came into force, the fourth in less than a month. How long and what will it take for the measures to work?
This Dpcm is finally heading in the right direction: developing measures proportional to the level of the epidemic in individual territories. It will take patience and perseverance. As for the time needed to see the effects of the measures, the experience in China tells us that it will take at least a month, but it will probably take a little longer. Two weeks is not enough to stop the curve and they certainly will to reverse it. When it crashes, as happened in Wuhan and then in March, it takes time for the data to stabilize.
What if in fifteen days we realize that the trend has not been reversed?
It is likely that in fifteen days the trend will not have reversed. To see the results of this arrangement we must update ourselves in two, three weeks and not be influenced by the daily data. We will first see a slowdown, then a flattening, and then a decline, but not before a month, month and a half. The scientific evidence says so: a recent study from the University of Edinburgh has shown that these are the times.
The specter of the general lockdown continues to float. What are the chances of it getting there?
I believe that with this Dpcm we can avoid the risk. We must avoid confinement, with measures proportional to local situations we can do it.
So this three-area system convinces you?
Absolutely yes, I had suggested it in March. But then the data got more and more overwhelming and everything had to shut down.
He has repeatedly asked for specific closures for Milan, Naples, Rome. At the moment, only Milan is the red zone along with Lombardy. Lazio and Campania are in the yellow area. Are you still convinced that a closure would be needed for Naples and Rome?
The data on Rome is not such as to lead to a blockade. The ones from Naples convince me less. The Naples metropolitan area is at risk.
Meanwhile, the presidents of the region are disappointed, in Calabria they want to defy the order, protest against Lombardy, Piedmont, Campania. Is this epidemic becoming politicized?
I really hope not, it would be a disaster. The country must unite in a common effort against the virus. Data is deteriorating, not acting means compromising the health of citizens. Loyal collaboration between the State and the Regions is sanctioned by the Constitution, which sees the protection of health as one of the fundamental rights. The Presidents of the Regions cannot repeal either scientific evidence or the constitutional duty to protect the health of their citizens.
Have you seen this whole issue of data, old, updated, incomplete, warned Professor Crisanti about the risk of lack of transparency about the data by the Regions? Does it also exist for you?
I don’t even want to think that some regions can alter the numbers they report to avoid ending up in a higher risk area. Doing so would mean attacking the safety of its citizens. I think that some delays are due to lack of personnel, to strengthen, and of skills, because these are not paper passers, they are people who must analyze the data. If they are few, it is clear that the data is entering the information system late ”.
The latest report, based on data for the week of October 19-25, portrayed a situation of further deterioration. The new data has reached the table in the control room. Did you get to see them? Scientists predict a worsening situation.
I have not seen the new data arrive at the Ministry of Health following precise institutional flows. Of course, compared to 10 days ago, all the numbers are deteriorating in all regions. Decisions had to be made first, we didn’t have to wait until the end of October. I hope that the data is made public, it is fair that everyone knows on what basis the decisions are made.
With the new data, the Regions could also find themselves in another area. But in your opinion, isn’t this system likely to add to the confusion, further disorienting?
No. This system, if done and communicated well, allows you to make decisions without wasting time. If we had introduced it today at the beginning of October we would have another situation.
“In hospitals, the situation is tragic,” he said this morning. Intensive care runs the risk of suffering. If this continues, how soon could we end up with crowded rooms?
More than the intensive care wards, at this stage I am concerned about the saturation of the beds, all the hospitals are filling up with Covid cases and there is no room for other patients. Intensive care wards will become crowded, but later than hospitals. The presidents of the Milan and Turin Medical Orders are calling for closure because normal beds are becoming saturated.
We must absolutely avoid the saturation of the hospitals to which, if we do not respect the measures of the Dpcm, we will arrive within two weeks. But we will respect them, we will also avoid this risk.
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