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On November 3, Americans will know the name of their own. new president. Joe Biden, the Democratic nominee, continues to stretch with Trump, leading observers to bet on an overwhelming victory for the donkey.
But with so many votes to count and the ghosts of 2016 (a shocking Trump win on the loser) still haunting, the American media could wait well beyond the polls to pinpoint the winner. So the first lights to come on might be those of financial world.
The winner of the US election will be seen by Wall Street
“I think the markets are very likely to announce the winner even before the mediaRaymond James policy analyst Ed Mills told CNN. Beyond the polls that continue to promote Joe Biden, the vote-by-mail mechanism runs the risk of increasing uncertainty, pushing the American media into a wait-and-see position. Prudence that does not belong instead to Wall Street, ready to react to the first signs of the decisive states.
Wall Street’s eyes are primarily focused on North Carolina, where vote counting has already started 14 days before Election Day. Encouraging posters of Joe Biden would rise in the small southeastern state, considered the most influential in Pennsylvania Wall Street’s confidence in the outright victory of the Democrats, leading to a rebound in the markets according to the analyst.
But US finances are also looking to find clues that can avoid the risk of contested elections. If wins and losses can fuel controversial sentiment in the markets, a game wouldn’t shake anything beyond Wall Street because of the uncertainty looming. Also for this reason, decisive signals from the most delicate states would be crucial for strengthen market confidence.
Wall Street winks at the Democrats
Following the backing of Moody’s, which boosted Joe Biden’s economic plans (up to 7.4 million jobs more than Trump’s strategy), the Democratic Party also picks up the support of Goldman Sachs.
In fact, the US investment bank announced that a Joe Biden victory would lead to a better economic outlook. The perspective of a blue Wave (a great victory for the Democratic Party, traditionally associated with the color blue) would be a stimulus for the markets. Despite the possibility of higher taxes and new regulations in the markets, Goldman Sachs promotes Democrats in light of Biden’s promised expansion of public spending and an increase in long-term investment in infrastructure, climate, health and education.
But beyond the general favor of the markets, one clear win for Joe Biden would create new winners and losers on Wall Street. If a host of businesses could benefit from the Democrats’ spending plans, there is another Wall Street that is hoping the Republicans will rebound. Indeed, a Trump victory would favor the actions of the oil companies, but also private prisons, citizens with student loans and some banks, all threatened by the new regulation promised by Biden.
