[ad_1]
2021 begins with great news for center right: He would dominate the political scene and win in any case. This is what emerges from the latest survey conducted by Ipsos For him Corriere della Sera, according to which the coalition formed by Forza Italia, Lega and Fratelli d’Italia would be attributed the most in all assumed scenarios. The survey is based on the electoral law in force, the Rosatellum, and taking into account the rules provided by the current law regarding the simulation of the seats obtainable in the proportional part (Action, Italia viva and Sinistra italiano / Liberi e equuali would participate in the distribution of seats proportionally assigned to the Chamber but not to the Senate).
There are two scenarios in the field: the first involves a tripartite division between the center-right (Forza Italia, Lega, Fratelli d’Italia and minor center-right lists), center left (Pd, Si / Leu, Iv, Action and minor center-left lists) and Movimento 5 Stelle; the second, on the other hand, takes into account the opposition between the center-right and a coalition between the four Giallorossi Forces who support the second government led by Giuseppe Conte. As already mentioned, in both cases the center-right would have the majority.
The yellow and red mess
In the first case, the center-right could enjoy 222 seats in the Camera (of which 106 assigned to the League) against an estimated 123 for the center-left (of which 84 go to the Democratic Party) and 51 for the 5 Star Movement. Also to Senate the center-right would win with 115 seats; the center-left would be assigned 58 while the grillini only 23. In the second simulation, however, the advantage would be smaller for the center-right (212 seats in the Chamber and 109 in the Senate). This is why dem and pentastellati could seek disorder to stop the opposing train.
However, as pollster Nando Pagnoncelli explains, the games are not closed in any way. Both because in single-member electoral districts the balance of power between coalitions is characterized by wide margins of uncertaintyand because the simulation is based on the most recent voting guidelines. So the cards on the table could undergo some changes with the electoral campaign that will be decisive. Much will also depend on the progress of the Coronavirus emergency and on the way in which the Giallorossi executive responds to the challenges that our country cannot fail at all. Without forgetting that the shadow of one always dominates Giuseppe Conte crisis threatened several times by Matteo Renzi: if the option remodeling seems completely out of the question, so Italia Viva will just have to unplug it. But only with the prompt return to the polls will it be possible to know what the new Parliament will actually be, taking into account the reduction in the number of parliamentarians.
