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Rome, September 22, 2020 – One true winner, one apparent, one defeated and a prime minister that, although it does not participate directly in the competition, it definitely comes out of it fortified. Although not entirely safe from some dangerous jolt. After fearing not to do so, the Democratic Party remains in Tuscany but the unexpected news is that Giani overtakes North League player Ceccardi by several points. He makes an encore in Puglia: based on the (fallacious) response of the polls, the defeat was given with certainty but Emiliano wins without a doubt. Like De Luca in Campania. The prediction that prophesied an advance from the right is confirmed only in the Marches: a real but not fatal defeat. In Veneto Zaia triumphs, in Liguria Toti great success.
Very reduced in regional session i 5 digits, but they console themselves with referendum. Even in that match there was some fear: not of defeat, but of a measured victory. On the other hand, the yes ones obtain 69.6% of the votes. And Di Maio goes straight to the collection: now the salary cut for parliamentarians. If in the majority the former head of pentastellato tries to open the discussion about who takes home the highest stakes between him and Zingaretti, throwing the cross of electoral defeat on Crimi, no doubts are allowed about who has lost, that is, Matteo Salvini. After Emilia, the advance also failed in Tuscany: compared to the previous Europeans, the voting by list is depressing and the success in Valle d’Aosta (where, according to exit polls, the League is the first party) it is not enough to relaunch it. Finally, Zaia far exceeds it in Veneto: if less than a year ago it had been a science fiction hypothesis, today the leadership is at stake.
The vote walks away the ghosts of Palazzo Chigi. The squad that the elections give to a prime minister who filters satisfaction “for the test of the attachment of Italians to democracy” is fragrant, but there are some thorns. M5s intends to ride the wave of the referendum: to overcome the crisis in which it is debated, loyalty to the remaining pentastellated flags will be stiffened. It will soon be discovered when it comes to Mes. On the other hand, a Zingaretti galvanized by unexpected success seems equally determined to seize the opportunity to overcome the resistance that, in his view, has so far immobilized the government. In this showdown between the two allies, the threat must be traced to Conte. It is not about abstract balances, but about concrete elections: in the short term the reorganization, the Month, the electoral law, the security decrees. A little beyond the destination of European funds from the next generation of the EU.
A strengthened democratic secretariat will overcome the resistance of those who, like Franceschini, are convinced that touching a single box is making everything collapse. Therefore, he will demand more voice in key sectors of the Recovery Fund, perhaps applying for the post of Deputy Prime Minister for the Minister of Culture himself (provided that Zingaretti does not enter the government). The referendum makes it inevitable to complete the electoral reform agreed (so to speak, given the current paralysis) in August.
Conte will have to work hard: changing the Rosatellum too soon means opening the doors to elections. It must be closed near the white semester, to allow the legislature “to continue until 2023”, according to the wishes of Delrio (Pd). Finally, the trap of the Month, in which the 5 Stars have no intention of giving up, but which is fundamental for the Democratic Party. That money, warns the Democratic leader, is necessary. In the end, a more generalized challenge between M5S, which will try to raise the price of the alliance, and Pd, which, thanks only to regional victories, will try to lower it. They are knots that will depend on the ability of Conte – who yesterday congratulated both Di Maio and Zingaretti- to solve: after this vote, he will be able to do it more easily. Even more so now, with Italy besieged by countries where Covid bites again, talking about a crisis would be out of place.
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