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There are “only” 16,377 cases of contagion registered in Italy in the last 24 hours. A figure that until a few weeks ago would have made us pale, and that today we can comment with some optimism. Because yes, despite the fact that, like every Monday, the number of swabs analyzed is quite small (130,524), this is the lowest number of new cases as of October 22.
Last Monday the infected were 22,930 out of 148,954 swabs. Not only that: as Lorenzo Ruffino explains on Twitter, “today we have fewer cases even on Monday than five weeks ago. The positivity rate also drops despite the drop in tampons. In general, the improvement of the epidemic continues, even if there are large regional differences. Taking into account Monday’s cases, the variation with respect to the average of the last 4 weeks was 33%, although it must be said that even fewer tampons are manufactured (-11%).
Monday cases:
This week: 16,377
Last week: 22,930
Two weeks ago: 27,354
Three weeks ago: 25,271
Four weeks ago: 22,253
Monday’s Cases
– this week: 16,377
– last week: 22,930
– two weeks ago: 27,354
– three weeks ago: 25,271
– four weeks ago: 22,253Change from the average of the last four weeks
– almost: -33%
– buffers: -11%– Lorenzo Ruffino (@Ruffino_Lorenzo) November 30, 2020
On the other hand, the positive / swab ratio increases slightly: from 11.7% on the weekend to 12.5% today.
The bad news of the day is the increase in hospitalized patients with symptoms (+308 in the last 24 hours) after several days of decline. A setback that could also be physiological. We’ll see. The balance between entries and exits in intensive care units is negative for the fifth consecutive day (today there are nine fewer patients).
However, it should be noted that 3,744 people are still hospitalized in critical wards (the peak of the second wave was 3,848) and that, therefore, doctors and nurses continue to work in emergency conditions. Normality is a long way off.
The number of victims, which today is 672, is also still very high, and there is a fact that makes us think. The deaths caused by Covid in November surpassed those of the worst month of the first wave, April. Whoever spoke of a mild second wave, because we would have been more prepared than in March, was very wrong.
Viral load is lowered
But the good news did not end with the decline in infections. According to reports from the virologist to Ansa Francesco Broccolo, from the Bicocca University of Milan and director of the Cerba laboratory in Milan, the viral load of the virus would have been significantly reduced from the analysis of the swab, that is, the number of copies of genetic material of the new coronavirus present in a milliliter of material biological taken. Only 5% of the patients analyzed, equivalent to 20% of the positive ones, have a viral load of more than a million, compared to 80% that was registered in October at the beginning of the second wave.
Galli (Sacco): “If people crowd, let’s start over”
Meanwhile, virologists are warning of the danger of the third wave, a very real risk if anti-contagion measures are not respected. According to Massimo Galli, a specialist in infectious diseases at the Sacco hospital in Milan and a professor at the University of the Lombard capital, one cannot relax. When people flock to Christmas shopping as soon as the anti-Covid restrictions are loosened, they may think, “‘Certainly I won’t be the one to make things worse by behaving like this. But if everyone thinks this way and runs to places of reopening of various services, what happens is that people crowd together and we will start again “, said Galli speaking with AdnKronos.” The responsibility lies with the individual – said the intellectual – but it is also a lot of who must prevent certain things from happening It seems clear to me that the various social and economic components each pull the water into their own mill. ‘Understandable, but there must also be someone capable of taking responsibility for preventing certain things from happening’
Iss: more than 800 thousand cases in the last month
Meanwhile, according to the latest data processed by the ISS, in Italy in the last 30 days 800,953 cases of coronavirus have been diagnosed, of which 48.3% correspond to men and 51.7% to women. The affected health workers are 22,712, 12,904 victims of the epidemic, more than 300 thousand recovered. The data comes from the update of the Higher Institute of Health on the Covid-19 epidemic, according to which the “figure is probably underestimated since this information may take longer to consolidate.” The median age of the diagnosed cases was 48 years in the last month (44.3%), while another 29.1% refers to people between 51 and 70 years old. 15.5% are over 70 years old, while 11.1% are between zero and 18 years old.
WHO: “First global decline since September”
Meanwhile, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, WHO director general, said at the regular briefing from Geneva that “last week saw the first drop in new Covid-19 cases reported globally since September, due to a decrease in the cases in Europe thanks to the effectiveness of the difficult but necessary measures implemented in recent weeks. ”” This is good news, “he added,” but it must be interpreted with extreme caution. The advantage can easily be lost and there has still been an increase in cases in most other regions of the world and an increase in deaths. “
The coronavirus bulletin of November 30
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