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Zaia seems resigned: Veneto is at risk of further restrictions and the Ministry of Health has not yet decided what to do. In an interview published today in Messenger of the Veneto The governor is open to the possibility of his territory returning to the areas with greater restrictions as of January 7, when the effects of Decree Law 172/2020 will end. “Red zone”? It is not for me to say. The only ones who have the right to express themselves in this regard are the technicians, who draw up the public health plans and take responsibility for them. My task is to make operational your indications on the territory. If the technicians believe that the red zone is needed, they will say so and the Region will act accordingly.
Veneto at risk
The data from Veneto continues to worry, with more than 10,000 infected in three days and hospitals at the limit of their capacity. The Covid-19 epidemic now presents the bill to the region, after the Christmas shopping gatherings. And it could be a hefty bill, with a “red zone” blocking. To move the Veneto to this band, however, the decisions of the government are awaited, which in the meantime is considering new restrictions (a “reinforced” yellow zone) after the holidays valid throughout Italy. But for the closure it is necessary to change the 21 parameters on which the risk classification is based in the reports of the Istituto Superiore di Sanità and the minister: we are thinking of introducing the reference incidence of 50 cases per 100 thousand inhabitants and one Rt (contagion index) of 1 or 1.1 to move to the orange zone.
Currently, the region has the highest TR in Italy (1.07) and an incidence of 968 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, three times the national average of 305. That is why Zaia remains a possibility, but without becoming too unbalanced: “To date in Veneto we have suffered two weeks of orange and red restrictions, from my decree of December 19 to the next government decree of Christmas. Are infections dropping? No. And hospitalizations remain substantially stable because patient care continues at a rapid pace despite discharge. And this, attention, does not happen only in Italy: in Germany and Great Britain, where they are applying tougher blocks than ours, infections are growing “. And this is the reason “Bans are useful if they are respected. Our contact tracing always leads us, in the end, to a lunch, a dinner, a snack, a workplace where our guard is let down. We never get infected by chance.
A new Dpcm, a decree law or an ordinance for the whole of Italy: the bans from 7 to 15 January
Meanwhile, as he writes today, the Conte government is studying a provision that expands the restrictions of the red, orange and yellow zone throughout Italy between January 7 and 15, the date on which decree 172/2020 and the 158/2020 with the Dpcm December 3. This is one of the hypotheses discussed in the meeting between the Prime Minister and the heads of delegation of the majority that supports the Executive. According to what is hypothesized, it is not excluded that this provision contains measures that will be applied at the national level, that is, going beyond the band system. The measure could be a ministerial decree or an ordinance of the Ministry of Health, or another decree law like the one that gave rise to the Christmas restrictions.
The summit, which was held by videoconference, was also attended by the ministers of Regional Affairs, Francesco Boccia, and of Health, Roberto Speranza. The Minister of Health should now see the Scientific Technical Committee and the members of the Benessere Italia Control Room Benessere Italia. The problem to be solved is precisely what legislative measure to launch in the next few hours for the new prohibitions that will remain in force until the expiration of Decree No. 158/2020. In the morning the possibility of launching a “reinforced” yellow zone throughout Italy with a red or orange zone was assumed during the weekend. That is, from Monday to Friday, keep the restrictions of the yellow zone and then close every Saturday and Sunday, keeping according to the options the possibility of moving within the municipalities and shops (except bars and restaurants) open in the last two days of the week. . In any case, Prime Minister Conte has ensured the resumption of teaching in the presence of secondary schools from January 7: postponing the date of return to school was a request of the Regions.
The meeting between the government and the heads of delegation began shortly before 1:00 p.m. and there were representatives of the Democratic Party Dario Franceschini, of Italy Viva Teresa Bellanova, of the Alfonso Bonafede 5-Star Movement and of Liberi e Uguali Roberto Speranza. Minister Bellanova launched the attack criticizing the vaccination plan and supplies: “Once again today we see the insufficiency of the health system, sanctioned by the need to activate the orange or red Regions with Rt thresholds lower than indicated above to avoid more critical problems. And there is an insufficiency and lack of clarity in the vaccination plan. If you want to get out of this impasse by giving a clear message to citizens, there is only one way: continue the timely monitoring and clarify the plan. The only message that remains at home it is evident that psychologically and economically for citizens it is no longer enough. Faced with a sacrifice that we ask of the people, we must give certainty. And from the data that I read, I still see few “.
Meanwhile, physicist Roberto Battiston has calculated that the Rt contagion index in Italy has increased even more to 0.99: “The identification of the red, yellow and orange areas starts from the value of the Rt index, but not considers the degree of development of the epidemic in the area, “observes Battiston.” Instead, the number of positive cases in the region should be included in the assessment because they are the two values that together determine how quickly the epidemic can spread with the risk of saturating the local health system “. Remember that the higher the Rt value, the greater the risk of spreading the epidemic. If, on the other hand, the value of Rt is less than 1, this means that the epidemic can be more easily contained.
Restrictions throughout Italy also in the yellow zone regions
Therefore, the most likely hypothesis to date is to extend the restrictions to all of Italy. The alternative is to declare the red or orange zone in some regions: the candidates are those with the highest Rt contagion rate, namely Veneto, Liguria and Calabria, followed by Lombardy, Puglia and Basilicata. But the figures for these territories, although they are growing, do not reflect those of the monitoring indicators of the Istituto Superiore di Sanità and the Ministry of Health, so it is not clear how the Minister of Health could act without lending his side to any appeal to regional administrative courts that could invalidate the ordinances. The hypothesis of changing the reference parameters to declare the yellow, orange and red zones, which has been mentioned in the newspapers in recent days, would take time and in any case would encounter opposition from the Regions. In the latest ISS report it was emphasized that:
- the epidemic in Italy remains “still serious due to a high impact on welfare services”;
- In the period from December 8 to 21, 2020, the average transmissibility index Rt calculated in symptomatic cases was equal to 0.93 (range 0.89 – 1.02), increasing slightly in the last three weeks;
- three regions / PPAA (Veneto, Liguria, Calabria) have a punctual Rt greater than 1, therefore, compatible with a type 2 scenario;
- another 3 (Basilicata, Lombardia and Puglia) exceed it in the average value;
- another three are nearby (Emilia-Romagna, Friuli-Venezia Giulia and Marche);
The type 2 scenario (in total there are 4, explained here) evokes a “situation of sustained and generalized transmissibility but manageable by the health system in the short-medium term, with regional values of Rt included in a systematic and significant way between Rt = 1 and Rt = 1.25 (that is, with estimates of the 95% confidence interval (95% CI) of Rt between 1 and 1.25), in the event that no complete follow-up of new outbreaks, including school-based ones, but nevertheless, the potential for SARS-CoV-2 transmission can be greatly limited with ordinary and extraordinary containment / mitigation measures. ” In recent days, a list of restrictions that the government would renew as of January 7 has been distributed, namely:
- The curfew will be renewed along with the obligation to wear the mask outdoors and indoors and to maintain the distance of at least one meter. the prohibition of assembly and the power, for mayors, to close streets and squares will remain in force;
- stores will reopen but there will no longer be closing hours; the closure of shopping centers will be renewed on holidays and the eve of holidays;
- bars and restaurants will reopen until 6 pm with the above rules: maximum four seats at the table and mask when not eating; take-out and home delivery will continue to be allowed;
- bus and subway capacity remains fixed at 50 percent and there are no plans to increase seats after January 15;
However, this list of restrictions may be out of date, as the restrictions in the red and orange zones are stricter. However, the government must find a political synthesis within itself before beginning work on the new provision.
