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In Italy the goal is to finish september club. Today, Sunday December 27, the European vaccination campaign has started, at least symbolically. According to the Italian vaccination plan, everything should be closed at the end of the summer. Obviously managing to achieve herd immunity before the reopening of the new 2021-2022 school year.
The goal in Italy
However, the path to reach that date does not seem easy and without pitfalls. First, the other vaccines have not yet arrived or been distributed. So it is still unclear how long the immunity will last, as we read on the Aifa website, there is still a question mark about it. And last consideration, although perhaps one of the most important, it is not certain that all, or almost all, Italians agree to undergo vaccination. According to the agreements, Italy should have the right to 202 million doses, a figure more than enough to cover the entire population and also have a certain reserve aside.
Now the only vaccine that has been licensed by the EMA and AIFA is Pfizer-Biontech, the first doses of which were injected today. The product should be stored in refrigerators at -70 degrees. In the future, but there is still no date, other vaccines should also arrive, such as Moderna, which does not need such temperatures for its conservation. The EMA evaluation for this vaccine was brought forward to January 6. Initially, however, there was talk of 12. For now we only talk about these vaccines, and therefore also about the supplies they are amazing.
In the first quarter of 2021, Italy should be able to have 28 million doses. Between April and June we should have doubled that figure, 57 million, and stabilize at 53 million between July and September. As of September, it would begin to decline, but always reaching 20 million in the second quarter of 2022.
Who will be the first to get vaccinated?
According to the vaccination plan, nursing home doctors, nurses, staff and guests will be vaccinated beginning in mid-January. We are talking about 2 million people. Then in February, or more likely the end of March, it should be the turn of over 80, which are about 4 and a half million. In April, therefore, it would be the turn of the subjects considered less fragile. So it starts with people between the ages of 60 and 79, about 13.5 million, and then with those with at least two chronic diseases, roughly 7.5 million. Then it will be the turn of the rest of the population, but always with precedence. In the vaccination plan, the categories belonging to the “Essential services such as teachers and school staff, law enforcement, prison staff”.
Duration of immunity and membership
But everything can always change during the race, for example if there were outbreaks in certain areas of Italy or other categories were considered higher risk. In theory, everything would appear linear but, as mentioned above, there can be problems. Meanwhile, it is not yet known how long the immunity granted by vaccines will last, as well explained in the Faqs on the Aifa website.
Maybe every year we have to get the vaccine again, like the flu vaccine.
The second problem, not less, is that it is not known with certainty how much population will decide to undergo the injection. Taking into account that to achieve a herd immunity, the minimum required would be 70% of the Italian population. Given that Italians are about 60 million, we are talking about 42 million. The vaccine is free and, at least for the moment, it is not mandatory. There are also those who, as a provocation, have proposed to pay those who agree to be vaccinated. But there are ways to force, even without saying clearly, to get vaccinated. And it is not certain that this government does not take them into consideration. For example with the patent immunity, without which it would be difficult to travel and enter public places.
