updates today November 3, 2020, which will be closed

The government has urgently convened a new summit with the Regions for this afternoon. On the table, the issue is the new Dpcm (Prime Minister’s Decree) that in the next few hours will further toughen the rules to avoid the spread of the coronavirus. These are hours in which the lives of citizens are decided, what to do in Lombardy and Como in the next three weeks. The hypothesis of a situation similar to that experienced last March is getting closer and closer, although the situation has been very different since then, at least for now.

What regions are at risk of total lockdown? Those that risk having to adopt the most restrictive measures, including the generalized closure, are Lombardy, Piedmont and Calabria, which have a contagion index Rt higher than 1.5 (in fact it is also above 2) and an uncontrolled transmission of coronavirus and Covid-19. For them, they are in preparation from the local confinements at the provincial level for at least 3 weeks until the limitation of individual mobility until the closure of the entire Region with the exception of essential activities.

If Lombardy, as now seems inevitable, is officially confirmed in the so-called “red zone”, these are the measures that could be taken for at least 3 weeks even in As if within the region there are no differences between city and city: a Starting tomorrow: first of all, they close all the stores that sell non-essential items, such as sports, clothing, shoes, as well as bars, restaurants and pastry shops, but also hairdressers, beauty centers, pastry shops and ice cream parlors. Instead, grocery stores, supermarkets, pharmacies, and newsagents remain open. But also hardware, mechanics, body builders. Negotiations over the schools were still ongoing overnight, but the compromise would appear to be to leave only the nursery, primary and secondary school open. It remains to be known at what time the blockade will be advanced, at 6 pm or 9 pm

Will the Dpcm arrive today, Tuesday, November 3?

In the red zone, only industries and schools will be open until sixth grade and the restrictive measures will be:

• Distance learning from second grade on;
• Stop in non-essential economic activities;
• Opening of industrial activities;
• Self-certified transfers.

On the other hand, in the second band are all those territories in which the risk factor is compatible with scenario 3, with an Rt between 1.25 and 1.5 and a “sustained and generalized transmissibility with risks of maintenance of the health system in the medium term “. In this case, “slightly less restrictive” measures are envisaged, the prime minister said. Which? Closing of activities, limitations to mobility in municipalities and provinces, closing of schools and universities due to epidemiological situation.

What is Rt

The Rt index is a calculation of the reproduction index of a disease, elaborated through complex algorithms and evaluated during a suitable period of time, for example weekly. At the beginning of the pandemic, everyone remembers the scientists speaking instead of “R with zero” or R0. It is always the rate of reproduction of a virus, but only in the initial stages, when no specific interventions (pharmacological or otherwise) are normally performed to control the infectious phenomenon. The alert level is triggered precisely when it exceeds 1, because it means that the contagion grows: each positive person potentially infects more than one, so it does not take much for the curve to bend upwards and acquire an exponential dimension. RT allows, for example, to monitor the effectiveness of interventions during an epidemic. R0 and Rt can be calculated statistically from a daily case incidence curve (the number of new cases, day by day).

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