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The latest poll, conducted by the Washington Post-ABC News, continues to list the Democratic White House candidate firmly in the lead. Joe biden that the current president Donald trump. The former actually separates his opponent by 10 points 53-43 among registered voters, those who undoubtedly intend to vote. Bifurcation that does not change even among likely voters (that is, those who are willing to vote) where Biden dominates 54 to 44.
Attention: the margin, in fact, is reduced to six points between the likely voters (from 49% to 43%) and among the registered voters (where it even goes from 47% to 41%) when there are also names of third parties, such as the candidate of the Libertarian Party Jo jorgensen and the green candidate Howie hawkins. The parties are not present everywhere, or rather: Jorgensen yes, Hawkins no, and therefore they are particularly insidious in uncertain states and, therefore, with greater risk, where the elections will be won with a handful of votes.
Trump is still not convincing the women of the suburbs, the ones who will make a difference in the current state of the race. In fact, if Trump likes voters of 55 to 42 men, Biden enjoys a huge advantage among women: where he wins even 65 to 34. With the difference that if Trump’s advantage among men is more or less the same as in 2016, when it collided with Hillary clintonBiden’s advantage among women is even double that of Clinton at the time.
So is Biden winning? In the United States, it is not the popular vote that makes the president, but the number of constituencies that are obtained. In uncertain states, the fork tightens, the challenge remains tight in Florida and Arizona, while Biden has a slight lead in Wisconsin and a greater one in Minnesota. A sign, however, of the president’s competitiveness.
