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If politics only followed logic, the government of Giuseppe Conte would not suffer repercussions from tomorrow’s and Monday’s vote referendum ed regional elections. Whatever the results were.
For two reasons. The first: the prime minister, who stayed well away from the electoral campaign, managed in July to release a Brussels a check worth 209 billion for post-pandemic reconstruction and socio-economic revitalization of Italy. And the force and inertia of this avalanche of funds is such that no red-yellow leader (not even the European Foreign Ministries) would want a crisis that would delay the drafting of the Recovery plans and would pass into the hands of sovereign Eurosceptics. Matteo salvini me Giorgia Meloni the European treasure. The second reason: in 2022 the new head of state will be elected and there is not a single exponent of dem, grillino, renziano or Leu willing to face the risk of political elections that, probably, would give the center-right the cards to choose the successor to Sergio Mattarella.
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However, the Conte-bis crisis, while decidedly unlikely, should not be entirely excluded. Not so much in the hypothesis (currently off the radar) that the “no” will win in the referendum due to the cut in parliamentarians: for the 5 Stelle – who have already taken into account a new blow to the regionals – the blow would be so devastating that, as they say to the Nazarene, “the grillini would entrench themselves in Parliament, sure of not returning, and would cling tooth and nail to the government.” Something else could trigger the crisis. It could be the victory in Tuscany of Susanna Ceccardi, from the Northern League, who faced the center-left candidate Eugenio Giani.
THE “GREAT DANGER”
“And this is because,” as a senior member of the Democratic Party close to the leader Nicola Zingaretti explains, “the secretary put on a face, fought like a lion to try to forge an alliance with 5Stelle. And it really is not at fault. Especially since Giani was chosen by Renzi and Luca Lotti. But Tuscany has the symbolic value that Emilia Romagna had, it is a kind of trench. If you lose the red fortress, administered by the left for 50 years, everything can collapse … ».
Here’s the point: the risk that the Democratic Party will be left in ruins, “destabilized” by tomorrow’s and Monday’s vote. With the unleashing of an internal confrontation, it has actually already begun. Outbursts of requests for resignation. A congress to arrange and celebrate. An aspiring secretary, Governor Emiliano Stefano Bonaccini, has already been on the starting line for some time. “And if this happens”, sighs a senior minister of the Democratic Party, “a crisis cannot be excluded, considering also the choice of 5Stelle to wage war on us everywhere, except in Liguria: with a supposed ally who becomes an enemy and you”. makes you lose, it would be difficult to continue ruling … ». In the words of Zingaretti: “You cannot stay in government as an opponent.”
It would be different if Tuscany stayed red. If, as the Democratic secretary hopes, the useful vote occurs, that is, disjoint. With the Grillini voters who, in order not to win the right-wing candidates, would elect Giani in Tuscany, Maurizio Mangialardi in Marche and Michele Emiliano in Puglia: the last two regions (currently administered by the center-left) are in the balance as Tuscany. It is no coincidence that Zingaretti chose Macerata to close the electoral campaign and repeated his call to “build a wall” against Salvini and Meloni.
If it ended like this, the end result would be 4-2. Veneto and Liguria, where outgoing governors Luca Zaia and Giovanni Toti are firmly in the lead, in the center right. Tuscany, Marche, Puglia and Campania (Enzo De Luca does not seem to have rivals) to the center-left. Which is then the photograph of the current situation. “But even a tie, a 3-3,” says another Democratic Party minister, “would be an excellent result. And it is most likely. The important thing is to avoid the 5 to 1, only Campania remains. In this case, other than a reorganization or a government coupon, there is a risk that everything will collapse ”.
Last updated: 08:32
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