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Between now and the end of the month, hospitalizations for Covid in Tuscany could rise to more than 1,500. There is a projection, requested by the department of the Regional Health Agency, that worries the technicians of the Region. These are people who will be admitted to the hospital in the near future. The estimate, based on the growth curve of these days, is that as of October 31 there are 1,634 people in Covid rooms, of which 245 are in intensive care. The first figure would be higher than the one reached on April 3, when the record of 1,437 patients was reached.
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by Michele Bocci
It should also be noted that it is a projection based on data collected a few days ago and that therefore it could vary over time. Yesterday, for example, in Tuscany there were 579 hospitalizations of which 76 in intensive care. The Ars estimated two slightly higher numbers for that day, respectively 592 and 89. Therefore, especially in intensive care, the estimates seem a bit pessimistic, but it will be understood a little later if this is the case.
Even if the analysis therefore has margins of error in the health world, there is concern about the numbers, which are still better than those of other regions. There is fear of rapidly escalating the risk scale indicated by the Higher Institute of Health and that, therefore, measures are necessary. Meanwhile, today the CEOs and the councilor will meet with Governor Eugenio Giani (and perhaps at this time also with new councilor Simone Bezzini). They asked them to meet every Thursday to take stock of Covid.
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A test improvement plan will be presented today, which has already started with the purchase of quick swabs and which will continue to increase the number of tests available every day and the push on where to do them, but also follow-up. As is known, the Department thinks of a nucleus of professionals dedicated to finding the contacts of positive cases and isolating them. Something very difficult to do at this stage, with the increase in the number of daily cases. In addition, the plan for hospitals will be presented, which provides for the opening of Covid and intensive care departments in the scheme already used in March. However, there is a big difference compared to then, because the intention is not to reduce the ordinary activity dedicated to other diseases, which during the confinement had been practically blocked. But from the health technicians there could also be proposals for measures to be taken as a region to reduce the movement of people and consequently the virus. After all, the technical-scientific committee for civil protection has indicated a series of measures to be taken according to the level of risk, which as mentioned in Tuscany is increasing.
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Yesterday in our region the new positives were 866. The death toll is high. 13, 7 men and 6 women lost their lives due to Covid with an average age of 79.8 years. Eight deaths occurred in the province of Florence. The swabs were 11,629 of 7,359 people (the difference is the tests carried out to certify the recovery of those who were infected days ago). The average age of the cases is increasing. Yesterday I was about 44 years old (17% of the new positives are under 20, 27% between 20 and 39, 31% between 40 and 59, 16% between 60 and 79, 9% are 80 or older). There are 32 more hospitalized than on Tuesday, that is, 579 of which 74 are in intensive care (4 more). People in isolation at home because they test positive but without or with few symptoms are 11,660, those who are in quarantine because they have had contact with the infected are 19,541.
