Towards a new Dpcm in November for the closure in Italy?

“If we respect the rules we have a good chance of facing December with serenity, otherwise there will be a blockade in Italy”: now even Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte at the press conference to present the refreshment decree speaks openly about the hypothesis that he wanted to all costs are avoided. But the premier also wanted to avoid a third consecutive Dpcm until Friday and yet on Saturday he launched the one on October 24. And the figures continue to blame him while even today in the newspapers there are those who foresee his fall and his replacement by a new reissue of a government of national unity.

Towards a new Dpcm in November for the closure in Italy?

The truth is that the numbers of the Civil Protection bulletin every day speak of a situation that is continually worsening: almost 22 thousand cases and 221 deaths in the first days of the week, when the weekend swabs are processed. This means that when we get closer to the end the situation will be even worse. For this Conte raises the hypothesis of the confinement in Italy, for now yet to deny it. But what happens in France (where Macron could launch a new generalized blockade in the next few hours) may now constitute the next viaticum.

All this happens while the streets and squares of the capital continue to be burned by the protests of the extreme right. And while the focus is mainly on Naples and Milan, where territorial closures are approaching although the Region denies it and the municipality that Beppe Sala directs says that there are still 15 days left before making a decision. It will take the same time to see the effects of the last Dpcm, but it may not be enough. That is why, the newspapers say, a new Dpcm could arrive in November with the closure measures, namely:

• the stop to travel between regions;
• the prohibition to leave the house except for health or work reasons;
• the closure of non-essential businesses;

This is a hypothetical scenario: it is the blockade in Italy that the government has always said it does not want to implement. And that it would be presented as a temporary provision to “save Christmas”, probably having the effect of this time precipitating the consensus towards an executive that the Italians were close to at the time of the first, but whom the BIS would not forgive. Since the sentiment of many is clear: it is politics that leads us to a new blockade.

Who pushes Conte towards the confinement?

A new government of national unity?

For this reason, between now and the next few weeks, the government will be forced to walk on hot coals, oscillating between the spectrum of confinement and that of the explosion of anger in the country. A confinement that, with infections constantly increasing, the premier, in fact, no longer excludes at the local level, taking care to say that the Dpcm, formally, allows it. And his statements are matched with those of those who, like the adviser to the Minister of Health Walter Riccardi, just a few hours earlier spoke of “necessary closure” for Milan and Naples. The tone of the prime minister, as new clashes take place in Rome in the Piazza del Popolo, is again as serious as in the days of the first wave. And Sergio Mattarella supports him, who from Colle continues to support the executive.

In this perspective, the newspapers now speak openly about the post-Conte. Yes it is Republic predicting among others that November could be the month of the new Dpcm with the closure in Italy, in the same newspaper Stefano Folli hypothesizes three solutions to a political crisis that in fact does not yet exist: a replacement of Conte by a different premier but supported by the same majority, a government of national unity entrusted to a high personality outside the parties that would be the only alternative formula to the elections or an interim executive to lead the country to elections.

Of course, thinking that in full emergency the country must once again face the ritual of consultations, of the climb to Colle, of the double vote of confidence for an executive other than the current one, is a matter of “Brief signs of the universe.” But the truth is that, sooner or later, Conte will really be called upon to choose a path that also requires questioning his position. The alternative between dying and earning a living will soon also be the prerogative of your government.