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In Italy there are three moderate risk regions “with a high probability of progressing to high risk in the next month”. This was revealed in the draft of the monitoring of the ISS-Ministry of Health. Given the transmissibility and the high probability of an imminent transition to the high-risk classification, the draft still says: “It is recommended to the health authorities of the 3 Regions / PA with high probability of progressing to high risk in the next month to evaluate the possible adoption of new mitigation measures “.
The three regions at risk according to the ISS report
What are the regions at risk? According to AdnKronos it would be Friuli Venezia Giulia, Molise and Veneto, whose epidemiological situation is being carefully evaluated by the ministry technicians at this time. Currently the Fvg is in the orange zone, in the Covid risk classification according to the 21 monitoring parameters, while Molise and Veneto are in the yellow zone. Yesterday the press raised the hypothesis of a step in the orange zone of Puglia and Basilicata, but in the morning to deny everything came the order of Minister Speranza, in force as of today, which renewed the anti-Covid measures adopted for Calabria, Lombardy , Piedmont, Puglia, Sicily, Valle d’Aosta, specifying that Puglia and Sicily will remain oranges.
The new ordinance – underlines a note from the ministry – is valid until December 3, “without prejudice to the possibility of a new classification provided for by the decree of the President of the Council of Ministers of November 3”. But with the monitoring results, other Regions could change color, even if a possible transition from yellow to orange or red does not seem imminent.
Critical admissions threshold was exceeded in 18 regions
The truth is that the situation in hospitals is far from reassuring. “There are 18 Regions that as of November 17 had exceeded at least a critical threshold in the medical or intensive care area,” reads the ISS draft. “If current transmissibility is maintained, almost all autonomous regions and provinces have a probability greater than 50% of exceeding at least one of these thresholds in the next month.”
The Rt index in the Italian regions
If hospitalizations are worrisome, the Rt contagion index is instead decreasing: the weekly data updated to November 18 set it this week at 1.18, therefore, still above 1, a sign that the epidemic continues growing, but in any case in marked decline. . Just think that last week it was equal to 1.43, two weeks ago it was 1.72.
“Repubblica” reports the value of the Rt index in the different Italian regions:
- Abruzzo 1.32
- Basilicata 1.46
- Calabria 1.06
- Campania 1.11
- Emilia-Romagna 1.14
- Lazio 0.82
- Liguria 0.89
- Lombardy 1.15
- Molise 0.94
- Piedmont 1.09
- Bolzano Province 1.16
- Province of Trento 1.03
- Apulia 1.24
- Sardinia 0.79
- Sicily, 1.14
- Tuscany 1.31
- Umbria 1.06
- Val d’Aosta 1.14.
The reduction in the Rt index, the report reads, suggests “an initial effect of the mitigation measures introduced at the national and regional level as of October 14, 2020.” However, given that transmissibility in most of the territory continues to be with an Rt above 1 and implies an increase in new cases, “this trend should not lead to a relaxation of measures or a decrease in attention in behaviors “.
Especially since according to the ISS almost all regions “are still classified as being at high risk of an uncontrolled and unmanageable epidemic in the territory or at moderate risk with a high probability of progressing to high risk in the coming weeks. In particular, 17 regions “are classified as high risk for SarsCov2 transmission.”
The problem of delayed data
The ISS and the Ministry of Health report that “multiple alerts have been reported related to the resilience of local health services in almost all autonomous regions and provinces. the quality of the data reported to the integrated surveillance system both due to punctuality (delay in the notification of cases related to the surveillance system on aggregated data coordinated by the Ministry of Health) and due to completeness. “This is highlighted by the draft of the weekly monitoring report of the Higher Institute of Health ( ISS) – Ministry of Health, of which Adnkronos Salute is in possession.
“The epidemiological data analyzed correspond to the week of November 9-15, which is currently the last consolidated data available. In itself, this is a confirmation of the generalized criticality of the resilience spread throughout the national territory and due to the severity of the epidemiological situation – the technicians comment – As a consequence, this can lead to an underestimation of the speed and incidence of transmission “.
The situation in hospitals
According to data from Agenas, in Italy 41% of the places available in intensive care are occupied by Covid patients, but the figure rises to 50% for patients in the non-critical area.
In Lombardy and Piedmont the figure for intensive care is respectively 65 and 62%, in Liguria 54%. Despite being in the orange zone, Basilicata has instead a percentage of bed occupancy that is not particularly critical, although in any case above the risk threshold (34% in the medical area and 31% in intensive care). In Sicily, Covid patients in intensive care are 41% of the total, but the percentage rises to 50% for those hospitalized in a non-critical area. It is worse in Umbria, where patients in intensive care occupy 59% of the total of places and 51% of the beds in the non-critical area.
In the orange zone are also the Marks, where Covid patients in intensive care and non-critical areas are, respectively, 43 and 45%. Emilia Romagna is doing better, another region in the orange zone, where 35% of intensive care positions and 46% of those in the medical area are occupied. In Friuli Venezia Giulia only 27% of the intensive care places and 38% of the beds in the medical area are occupied.
