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The hypothesis of a night curfew finds space today in the newspapers. Some have been explaining how for days Andrea Crisanti, that a stop of a few weeks sooner or later could become indispensable. Alessandro Vespignani takes 5-6 “very tough” months in fighting the spread of infection. The Campania of Vincenzo De Luca closes schools until October 30 (and then who knows).
Strong measures are being taken across Europe to avoid a new lockdown: almost all countries are adopting restrictions to stop the infection, in a race against time that has total closure only as a last resort. In Lombardy today a meeting between the mayors, the prefects and the president of the Lombardy Region Attilio Fontana could give rise to news (even big ones) already in the next few hours: closures, restrictions, restrictions?
Locatelli: “No lock, we still have time”
But there are those, like the professor Franco Locatelli, He preaches caution and explains that there are currently no conditions for a lockdown. Tell it to Corriere della Sera, interviewed by Margherita De Bac: “I don’t think there are elements that can guide us to envision a new confinement, much less a confinement to be achieved at such a defined time, but still relatively distant, like the Christmas holidays.”
The president of the Higher Health Council, member of the technical-scientific committee, Cts, is not the only one who explains that what each one of us “in individual behavior will be able to contribute will be decisive as a contribution to avoid the increase in new daily cases they acquire. an exponential trend, escaping control “.
Are we still in time to turn around? “Yes, we certainly arrived on time, but it depends on how the individual citizens, and together as a country, are willing to do it, for this to happen. Therefore, it is critical that everyone, without exception, does everything in their power. to limit the spread of the virus. We can no longer afford to deviate from the good rules. ”
Intra-family outbreaks are around 70%. Why? “The risk is that the family, understood both as people and in the area of housing, may be perceived as the place where there is least tendency to adopt measures to prevent contagion.”
There are places in intensive care
The beds of intensive careWhat are the elements to take into account, are they already in short supply? No, that’s not true: “At the moment no region – says Locatelli – has run out of resources. In fact, the data referring to a trend towards exhaustion of resuscitation beds belongs to the additional equipment specific to patients suffering from COVID-19 “.
However, there is the very high quota of conventional beds in hospital resuscitation that, when the infection curve was limited, had resumed the support functions normally dedicated to other pathologies ”. What if hospitalizations increased exponentially? “Even if there is a further increase in the number of patients, there are places of sub-intensive care easily convertible into intensive care. As long as it is necessary.
Conte: “I don’t expect a confinement in Milan”
“I don’t expect a emergency shutdown on Milan “after today’s meeting between the mayor and the prefect in the Lombard capital. The prime minister said last night in Brussels Giuseppe Conte, answering questions from some journalists on his return to the hotel after the first day of the European Council. “At this time,” observed the premier, “we must continue, and above all place our trust in the behavior of all, of all of us, insufficient citizens; because that is our strength ”. That, Conte continued, referring to the experience of the long emergency shutdown Italian, “it was our strength, and I have said it again today in my speech” at the European Council. “I said: the prescriptive measures are fine, the precautionary measures are fine; but if citizens do not have confidence in the precautionary measures that we indicate, if they do not express that sense of responsibility and cohesion, that sense of belonging to a common destiny and search from the same objective, no results are obtained. We have to focus on that “.
The entire area of the Metropolitan City of Milan remains under observation at this time, where for two days the Rt index has exceeded 2. The mayor officially reported the data. Giuseppe Sala, at the end of the summit on the increase in infections held in the afternoon in the Prefecture, in which the prefect Renato Saccone also participated. The trend worries the mayor, according to whom “to understand where to intervene, you have to know where the infections arise.” For the moment, Sala excludes “radical interventions”.
No blockade even according to the Foreign Minister, Luigi di maio, which however does not hide the seriousness of the situation. “Let’s speak clearly. The pandemic crisis is not over, infections are on the rise and the data should make us think. The virus is present in Italy and the risks are high. This is precisely why, as a government, we have intervened to do more rigid anti-covid measures “. the obligation to wear the mask even outdoors was a necessary measure. Do you remember what happened in the darkest months? When did they force us to shut everything down? because our economy can’t afford it. Companies, our traders, the self-employed and the entire industrial world cannot stop again ”.
“There will be time to discuss responsibilities, now is the time to act: we have to think about the figures that cause concern but that say that there are only 10 percent of the positions filled in intensive care,” he says. Matteo renzi to Tg2Post – The pandemic is growing around the world: you have to learn to live with the virus and wait for the vaccine to really arrive at Christmas, as the Pomezia team tells us. I am proud that the vaccine and the treatments are Italian. We must be wise and prudent: infections are high but deaths are controlled, and to think that 1,800 people die every day in Italy, we cannot underestimate among them those who die of cancer or other diseases. You need to find the perfect balance between health and financial security: shutting everything down would be disastrous. There are people who no longer eat, such as entertainment workers or the catering and tourism sectors. A christmas in emergency shutdown it really wouldn’t be possible. “
“Although Italy has learned to fight this virus much better, we must pay great attention.” Some European countries “are adopting very strict restrictions”, but “Italy cannot afford a new emergency shutdown generalized “. So” we must be prepared for any very specific restrictions because we have to live with the virus and try to keep the economy, work and school alive. “This was stated by the president of the Emilia-Romagna Region, Stefano bonaccini, during the inauguration of two new Hpe Coxa laboratories in Modena.
For now no one indicates a threshold, but according to rumors reported today also by the Done, If in the next few days the new infections jumped to 15/20 thousand per day, another Dpcm will be taken into consideration with a kind of curfew: in two weeks the last measures adopted must have paid off and blocked the exponential increase in the curve . This is what is expected.
“It is essential to find spaces to isolate those who need simple care”
There is also another important issue: “It is essential to find spaces to isolate those who need simple care, but also to guarantee safe quarantines. We are in a critical but manageable limbo,” says the virologist. Fabrizio Pregliasco.
Covid-related deaths in Italy could reach 300 per day, an expected peak for mid-January, even with the possible introduction of six more weeks of emergency shutdown strict and general use of masks. Up to 55,240 total deaths (now 36,289) at the end of January. The projection (and this is the most favorable scenario) is of theInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (Imhe), a think tank established in 2007 with the aim of representing “an unbiased picture of health trends based on scientific evidence to provide useful information to governments and scientists.” But it should be noted that the latest estimate of the IMHE was made on October 9, before the launch of the Dpcm on Monday, so the new projections of the Institute, planned for the next few days, could be revised downwards, after the new restrictions introduced .
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There are also much more disturbing rumors, such as that of Massimo Galli del Sacco di Milano: “In fifteen days we will be like France, the
Spain, UK. In addition, we have a distribution of infections throughout the territory. And when you start to see reality in the areas where the first wave has hit the least, you know that the reorganization of cards this summer will create big problems for you because they are areas that have not had this experience and do not have equipped facilities ”.
