The regional elections will be the first real test for Italia Viva. The symbol of the feast of Matteo renzi will be present for the first time on the ballot papers throughout Italy.

On the occasion of the electoral test in Emilia Romagna, the former prime minister had supported the center-left by putting men on the list of the presidential candidate, Stefano Bonaccini. The vote on September 20 and 21, on the other hand, will be a true baptism for Italia Viva, a party officially inaugurated just a year ago, two weeks after the birth of the Giallorossi government. According to Renzi, Italy Long Live very soon it could have reached double figures.“When they don’t know what to tell us, they tell us that we only have 4%. If with 4% we can combine all this, imagine what we can do when we reach 8 or 10% “, said the former prime minister in recent months, chasing away the bad omens of pollsters that heralded a failure for the new neocentista formation.

Recovery, in Renzi’s intentions, should start from his Region, the Tuscany, where he began his political career. In 2004, at just 29 years old, he was elected president of the province of Florence with 58% of the votes, while five years later he defeated the establishment candidate, Lapo Pistelli, in the center-left primaries, and became mayor of the Tuscan capital. In 2010, Renzi, in the name of ‘scrapping’, began his rise to power by giving life to Leopolda kermesse. This is the starting point of the challenge against Pier Luigi Bersani, which will only be won in 2013. It is the prelude to Renzi’s jump from Palazzo Vecchio to Palazzo Chigi. The rest is a series of unfulfilled promises: from the #enricostaisereno of 2014 to the #senzadime of 2018 with which Renzi swore that he would never govern with M5S, going through the fact of not retiring from politics in case of defeat in the constitutional referendum of 2016. The list of illusions and disappointments collected today could be enriched with the possible defeat of Eugenio Giani in the Regionals of Tuscany or, in any case, with an Italy flop Lives in the region that launched the Scandicci senator’s career.

“Renzi’s limit was that of not having built, of having deceived people by presenting projects that he did not carry out. If you lose credibility in politics, you will not regain it later ”, explains a ilGiornale.it Paolo Bambagioni, former central president of Leche and regional councilor for 10 years, candidate from a civic list that supports Giani and who has known Renzi since his political beginnings. “If you say ‘if I lose, not only do I quit, but I retire from politics’ and then you don’t, why should people believe the other promises? I think that, in politics, credibility is everything ”, he remarks with a certain political vein.

“Renzi, at the national level, ranges between 3 and 5%, perhaps more towards 3 than 5, but it is difficult to estimate those parties that are too big to be really small and too small to be really big,” he explains. the pollster Alessandro Amadori who assures: “In any case, Italia Viva continues to be a niche reality because all neocentric attempts, alternatives to the Democratic Party and Forza Italia, have all placed themselves in this dimension without having the transfer of votes that Renzi also hoped to obtain.” And she adds: “The operation of creating a 10% party has failed anyone. They are niches equivalent to one-thirtieth of the electorate ”. But it will also be a challenge to break through in her region where, according to Amadori, Italia Viva could reach between 5 and 6% because it is difficult to unhinge the “Tuscan model”. “Tuscany, like Emilia, is a systemic region, which means that there is a strong interaction between politics, society and the economy and the center of this interaction remains the P.S”, Explains the pollster.

“Systems tend to be homeostatic, that is, they tend to be preserved over time and voters, before sending a system to the attic, think it over. Voters must have a systemic alternative that Renzi has not been able to give them, “underlines Amadori, who wonders:” Why would Renzi have had to break through? What was your alternative view of Tuscany? ”. In practice, “while he was within the Democratic Party, he was part of a very robust system, but once he was out, all this no longer exists,” explains the pollster who declared: “It is not enough to have a ‘magic lily’ to create a system in a sociological sense. With the magic lily a system is created only in a political sense. ” An approach that is confirmed in the words of Bambagioni: “Renzi may have a group of friends who support him, but the political class on which his consensus was formed no longer exists.”

The secretary of the Democratic Party Nicola Zingaretti and his loyal Goffredo Bettini is willing to blame the Regionals’ eventual defeat on Italia Viva who performed alone in Veneto, Puglia and Liguria and could have a poor performance in Tuscany. But, to return criticism to the sender, think about it Ettore Rosato, national coordinator of Italia Viva, who assures: “Some surveyors will have to reimburse the invoices they have collected from their clients. We are optimistic and we work for a good result. Tuscany is important and we expect an excellent result and we are convinced that Giani will win ”.