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On August 31, at the end of the holidays and when it was possible to take stock of the infections and deaths from Covid of the first wave, in Lazio there were 878 deaths from coronavairus. A little over four months later, therefore, with the second wave still ongoing, the number of victims has changed dramatically: Covid deaths have become 3,816, therefore 2,938 people in Lazio also died due to Covid between the beginning of September and the first days. from January. In fact, deaths from Covid in the last quarter of 2020 have more than tripled compared to the first eight months of the year. How is it possible? Today, Lazio has an average of 24 Covid-related deaths a day, a very high number.
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The Rome factor
The main reason is that Rome and Lazio, in the first wave, had managed to limit the epidemic: it is useful to see the number of positive cases, although it must be said that many more swabs were done in the second wave than in the first. Well, as of August 31, 11,191 positive cases had been registered in Lazio; as of January 2, 2021, they became 166,239. In summary: in the second wave we had 155 thousand new infections, which is fourteen times those of the first.
Clear? Deaths in the second wave were more than triple compared to the first, fourteen times more infections. Fortunately, therefore, deaths have not increased to the same extent as positive cases, because more swabs are done and they are also more asymptomatic, but one fact is undoubted: the virus is circulating much more. Spring’s total lockdown stopped the massive spread of the coronavirus in Rome in the bud; In the second wave, when the containment measures were less strict because it would have been impossible (in Italy as in any other country) to continue with the total blockade for many months, the virus spread very quickly and, consequently, more infected, unfortunately , means more deaths.
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The fatality rate
The fatality rate is not high in the second wave – it is around 1.9 percent, that is, less than 2 of every 100 infected people die – but, as is always explained, if the number of infected increases a lot, consequently even that of deaths becomes very (too) high. Lazio, among other things, has a low fatality rate compared to other regions. In the first wave, the fatality rate in Lazio (as mentioned, 878 deaths out of 11,191 infected) was much higher: 7.8 percent. How is it possible? The answer is simple: many asymptomatic positive cases (which we find today thanks to the improvement of the tampon system) in the first wave, in Lazio as elsewhere, had not been tested. it is possible that in the first wave, comparing the two fatality rates, the actual positives were at least three or four times more than those found.
If this is true, today it can be assumed that in Lazio there are at least 200 thousand people who, knowingly or unknowingly, have had contact with the coronavirus. We are about 3.2 percent of the population. If, as many investigations now maintain (but there is still no certainty), the protection remains long, when the vaccination campaign has covered a substantial part of the inhabitants, we will have to add 3.2 percent of the population to the percentage protected people and this will first help limit the circulation of the virus. Hopefully at least.
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Last updated: 13:51
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