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COVID-19: with the rise of infections we speak again emergency shutdown. A word that refers to what happened between March and April, when Italians were imposed forced closure in your house for limit contagion opportunities to a minimum.
The government has always denied the possibility that there may be a second lock, however in the last hours the Scientific Technical Committee (CTS) has produced a document mentioning this possibility. A document containing information about how to fight the second wave of the pandemic of COVID-19 and that for the moment not official yet since it must be submitted to the approval of the Conference of State Regions.
It is enough to know, however, that we are talking about emergency shutdown; this possibility, therefore, is no longer as remote as it seemed a few months ago. In this regard, the CTS -which will talk today with the Minister of Health, Roberto Speranza- has prepared three different scenarios with so many solutions; among these there is also the need for a second lock, let’s see on what occasion.
First scenario: what happens to Italy if the pandemic remains as it is today?
In the current situation no need for a second lock. What has been called “yellow landscapeIn fact, it foresees an RT transmissibility index between 1 and 1.25 and does not foresee major difficulties for the health system.
However, it is important that contain the spread of the virus and that is why epidemic outbreaks must be suppressed; In this sense, the CTS suggests strengthening social distancing, promoting smart work and establishing, when necessary, local red zones.
In this scenario, the early closure for bars and restaurantsBut activities like gyms are also at risk. The CTS, in fact, suggests “the interruption of the most exposed social, cultural and sports activities”And it is also for this reason that amateur contact sports (such as football for example) could be suspended again.
For schools, the rotation between morning and afternoon lessons in secondary schools, to limit the number of students per class.
This scenario will be discussed in the coming days, with the indications of the CTS that could make their way into the new DPCM with which they will be presented new obligations and restrictions to limit the risk of contagion.
Second scenario: what if the situation worsens
Then there is a second scenario, of the orange type, in which, for example, some Regions like Campania, Lombardy me Basilicata. In this case, the transmissibility is sustained and generalized – Rt index between 1.25 and 1.5 – and the risks to the stability of the health system in the medium term.
In this case, the CTS recommends “Extended extraordinary interventions, with temporary closures (2-3 weeks) in Municipalities and Provinces“Therefore, it would be localized closures, a hypothesis never excluded by the Government, but for a fairly short period. This scenario would imply a further tightening of the rules on social distancing and also for the school there would be stricter measures than those foreseen for the yellow stage.
furthermore, the closure of regional borders, especially for the Regions with the highest number of infections, and the interruption of some productive activities is not excluded.
Third scenario: what happens if the situation worsens
The more serious scenario – colored red – is one in which the coronavirus spreads uncontrollably with a Rt index greater than 1.5, with immediate criticality for the health system.
A scenario that the government hopes will never materialize, as it would mean that the intensive care is again close to collapse. In this case, it would be mandatory to introduce limitations to go from Region to Region, while schools will have to close again.
And it is in this scenario where it would be a second block is inevitable that could widespread and longer lasting, since we would have to wait for the infections to subside to return to normal.
Caution: remember that, as Conte has explained several times, those of the CTS are only indications. It will be up to politics, in fact, to make the decisions that it considers most appropriate to the situation we are experiencing, also taking into account other needs (such as the current state of the economy, already put to the test by the first blockade).
