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The political imprint is in the term that will be used to define the new layoffs: universal. Where universal means everyone can have it. A principle that the virus imposed during the emergency and in fact the Government gave life to the so-called Covid cash, a generalized form of support without gambling. But then this very principle was softened by the risk that the Covid cash register would become an excuse for companies not to reopen and keep workers at home. But now we have to think about phase 2, which is the normal one. And here the principle of universality reappears. In fact, we want to make it structural.
Huffpost It is able to anticipate the work that a commission of experts, appointed by the Government, is doing in the Ministry of Labor to put the layoff reform in writing. The new redundancy fund will bring in 3 million currently excluded workers, from the grocer to the small restaurant with two employees. It will be a universal shock absorber, as we said, but not unique. The fund is nothing more than an insurance that companies and workers pay based on the risk of reduction or suspension of work. There are dozens of different procedures, where each one refers to a sector. And everyone has to pay a tax. In this sense, the new fund will not be unique, but will have different rates depending on the risk profiles. Take, for example, the case of a builder, who often uses the cash register in bad weather, or a craftsman. They have a low tax rate. If a single rate were used, it would be higher on average. And this means that resorting to layoffs would come at a high price.
The imprint of universality rests on the political leg of the extension of a right that today is not for everyone. Because the cash goes to companies with more than 15 employees, exceptionally for those with 5 to 15, but it is not even planned for those with fewer than five employees. The smallest, such as small shops or restaurants, are an example. But the print also says something else. And it is that the Government aims the lever of labor policies, and therefore of public spending, once again towards an omnibus and support measure. The logic is similar to that of citizens’ income. And it is no coincidence that structural support for the self-employed is also being considered. The idea is that of a bonus for when you are not working.
But both for the universal dismissal and for the structural bonus for the self-employed, you have to deal with the money available. And here another question intervenes, also political and economic at the same time, because the State will register savings in some items of expenditure at the end of the year. This is the case, for example, of quota 100. What will be done with this money? Where will they go? The issue is open, and the construction site of the universal redundancy fund plans to travel regardless of the result of the redistribution of savings. Also because it is not certain that a universal fund necessarily means a greater or even monstrous outlay for the state coffers. The issue is different and it is to calibrate a coverage forecast, that is, to understand how much the attractive potential towards this new measure can be. The same trend of layoffs registers a still unstable trend. Because the hours of cash authorized by the INPS in the first eight months of this year exceed three billion, of which 2.8 billion correspond to the health emergency. An increase of 988% compared to the whole of 2019. But those that were then used by companies in the first six months were only 42.2 percent. And in August the hours authorized by the INPS fell by 39.1% compared to July. Of course, they are micro-trends, but they break the redundancy fund equation for everyone and thus increase the cost. In other words: the universal cash box will affect everyone, but not everyone will use it.
The Government’s plan also foresees taking the management entrusted today to the bilateral Funds instead of the Craftsmen Fund under a single management. This is to avoid asynchronies in the cash dispensing process. Most of the dismissal requests that have not yet been completed, in fact, refer to the Craftsmen Fund, where the paperwork is complex.
In this intertwining of economics and politics there is also another piece that it intends to include in the reform of layoffs: taking away from the Regions the role they have in the complex mechanism of the redundancy fund. Covid has caused the explosion of this vulnus and the lack of fluidity between the Regions channel and the INPS channel. Thousands of questions arrived with delays of even weeks to the brain of the pension fund. And this hitch slowed down the whole mechanism. The government’s idea is to put the layoffs under the aegis of the Ministry of Labor and the INPS. A centralized system that opens up to another political issue, that of the role of the Regions. And to the role of the ministry that is led by a minister in a 5-star jacket. Here then is that the universal dismissal could re-propose the same dynamic that affected the income of citizens. Dynamics and new balances within the majority giallorossi.
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