the three scenarios at the government table to avoid confinement

At Palazzo Chigi it is feverish hours. Between the majority meetings and the scheduled meeting with the CTS experts, the possibility of anticipate the Dpcm which will contain a new tightening with a curfew and blockade on Monday, October 12. The decision has not yet been officially made, but the government intends to intervene as soon as possible: and “coexistence”, that is, parties, events, ceremonies and clubs, will end up in the crosshairs. However, everything will have to be discussed with the technical-scientific committee that would have outlined three scenarios for the Government.

As the newspaper anticipates the messenger Italy would now find itself in a scenario defined as “yellow” in which the transmissibility of the virus is maintained and extends throughout the national territory – Rt index between 1 and 1.25 – but the situation of the sick would be manageable by the health system in the short and medium term. Therefore, the recommendations would focus only on the predispositions of local red areas contain the explosion of outbreaks in individual municipalities, limitations to overcrowding in public transport and a possible curfew in the premises to limit risk behaviors during the night hours. However, the measures could also include schools with staggered lessons between morning and afternoon and distance learning for secondary schools.

However, if health systems were to be overloaded, a second scenario would be revealed, a kind of orange alert similar to the one adopted in France for cities where at least 30% of resuscitation places are occupied by patients infected with Covid-19. . Therefore, extraordinary interventions with temporary closings of 2 or 3 weeks in Municipalities and Provinces would be necessary, the closure of regional borders and the interruption of social, cultural and sports activities with a higher risk of overcrowding. The orange scenario could soon involve regions like Campania, where according to the latest bulletin of 110 available intensive care places, 63 are occupied while 686 of the 820 available hospital places are occupied in wards. The data for Lombardy are more contained, where, however, there is a real boom in infections.

The third scenario to avoid

If the virus spread uncontrollably … Rt index greater than 1.5 – putting the health system at risk, the CTS could recommend to the government restrictions on movement between regions and provinces and a emergency shutdown as widespread as that experienced by Italy between March and early May.

To avoid this scenario, the Minister of Health will meet today with the experts of the CTS proposing the possibility that doctors and pediatricians can perform rapid tests, avoiding the collapse of the drive-in where there have been queues of up to 10 hours to undergo the hyssop. All hoping that the system of follow-up of the contacts of the positives can be maintained: the example of the experience lived by the former candidate for governor of Liguria Ferruccio Sansa, unfortunately, shows the opposite.

“The Covid center does not respond and with Immuni they do not know what to do”: Sansa’s odyssey makes her sick at home with the symptoms of the coronavirus

Meanwhile, the infection advances in Europe where yesterday the second daily record of Covid-19 cases was registered, according to data from the World Health Organization (WHO): yesterday 123,684. The figure that raises the total budget in the Old Continent to 6,836,958 infections, of which 246,226 died. Yesterday, the number of cases in the world surpassed the 37 million mark and, according to Johns Hopkins University, currently stands at 37,105,925, including 1,071,388 dead.