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“After the Epiphany we will have to restore the model of risk bands and confirm the basic measures of the yellow areas”: the Minister of Health, Roberto Speranza, in an interview released today in Corriere della Sera confirms that as of January 7, the zone system will be in effect again. Therefore, we can wait until the expiration of decree law 172/2020 a series of ministry ordinances to return to the limitations in force before the holidays.
The three risk regions of the red or orange zone as of January 7
It is Speranza himself who announces that the curfew will remain in force, restaurants and bars will close at 6 in the afternoon and the lockout of swimming pools, gyms, cinemas, theaters and stadiums will be maintained. Denying in part what his own colleagues had announced about the possibility of reopening some activities (with certainty) from the 15th, when the provisions of Decree Law December 2 n. 158 and Dpcm December 3. But there is more. Because yesterday, before the habits, the draft of the report of the Istituto Superiore di Sanità and the ministry was published in which there is no good news for the regions. That is, according to the data based on which the regime of the yellow, orange and red zones is decided:
- the epidemic in Italy remains “still serious due to a high impact on welfare services”;
- In the period from December 8 to 21, 2020, the mean transmissibility index Rt calculated in symptomatic cases was equal to 0.93 (range 0.89 – 1.02), increasing slightly in the last three weeks;
- three regions / PPAA (Veneto, Liguria, Calabria) have a point Rt greater than 1, therefore compatible with a type 2 scenario;
- another 3 (Basilicata, Lombardia and Puglia) exceed it in the average value;
- three others approach him (Emilia Romagna, Friuli Venezia Giulia and Marche);
The type 2 scenario (in total there are 4, explained here) evokes a “situation of sustained and generalized transmissibility but manageable by the health system in the short-medium term, with regional values of Rt included in a systematic and significant way between Rt = 1 and Rt = 1.25 (that is, with estimates of the 95% confidence interval (95% CI) of Rt between 1 and 1.25), in the event that no new full follow-up can be performed outbreaks, including school ones, but nevertheless, it is possible to greatly limit the transmission potential of SARS-CoV-2 with ordinary and extraordinary containment / mitigation measures. ” And in the draft of the control room of the ministry and the ISS it is said that with respect to Veneto, Liguria and Calabria “this is of special concern and therefore we are urged to consider the application of the planned measures, for the levels of risk attributed, also at the end of these holidays as described in the document “ Prevention and response to Covid-19: evolution of the strategy and planning in the transition phase for the autumn-winter period ” transmitted with the Circular of the Ministry of Health of 10/12/2020 Prot. 32732 “. And the Veneto, writes today on the cover The sun 24 hours, not only the orange is taking risks: it could go straight back to the red zone (while the orange would be reserved for Calabria).
The other regions at risk
We are, therefore, far from the goal: those 50 cases per 100,000 inhabitants to be reached in 7 days that would allow the true restoration of contact tracing. Therefore, according to the experts of the ISS and the ministry, “the need to maintain the line of rigor adopted during the Christmas holidays is confirmed over time.” Here is the table showing timely RT indicators for December 21-27 updated to 29.
- Abruzzo: 0.65
- Basilicata: 1.09
- Calabria: 1.09
- Campania: 0.78
- Emilia-Romagna: 0.98
- Friuli-Venezia Giulia: 0.96
- Straight: 0.84
- Liguria: 1.07
- Lombardy: 1
- Walk: 0.99
- Molise: 0.89
- Piedmont: 0.71
- PA Bolzano: 0.76
- PA Trento: 0.71
- Apulia: 1
- Sardinia: 0.78
- Sicily: 0.93
- Tuscany: 0.79
- Umbria 0.8
- Aosta Valley: 0.83
- Veneto: 1.07
Meanwhile Walter Ricciardi, advisor to Minister Speranza, cuts off the bull’s head and proposes the red zone for all of Italy until mid-January: “The Christmas closure must last at least until mid-January and there are no conditions to reopen schools between one and other”. week ”, says the professor of Hygiene at the Catholic University in an interview with ‘La Stampa’. Regarding the vaccination campaign, “if in the first months of 2021 we manage to vaccinate the most fragile categories of the population, we will already have positive repercussions from the point of view of mortality and hospital admissions before the summer, relieving the pressure on the health system – he emphasizes – But to see results on the contagion front, and therefore a decrease in the virus circulation, we will have to wait until the end of the year ”. Ricciardi agrees to exclude mandatory vaccination. “We know that 70% of Italian citizens do not oppose vaccines, another 25% have doubts, but it must be clearly stated: in the end we will be able to reach 95% coverage. Non-vax calls are an absolute minority, albeit noisy “. Therefore, Ricciardi supports the idea of a “license” for citizens who get vaccinated. “I would speak of a screening of those immunized, to be evaluated in case we find 30 or 40% of the population that rejects the vaccine. It is a hypothesis to study well from the legal point of view, but in Eastern countries it worked: enough, receive the vaccination code on your mobile phone and place a special reader at the entrance of cinemas, theaters, football stadiums and similar places . Only those who have the code that certifies protection enter “.
“To really lower the contagion curve, we have seen, the only way is through long and national closures. Even the now-in-force” red zone “should be extended, at least until mid-January, if we want to see positive effects. From January 7, all of a sudden, we will restart all activities, without a doubt we will see an increase in the epidemic curve, “warns Ricciardi, also issuing a warning at school. it can bring children to the classroom with low circulation of the virus, not with the current one. Schools are safe environments, but it is the external situation that does not recommend their reopening. We run the risk of closing them in a few weeks. ” “In the first phase, I was able to influence political decisions more, I also attended the CTS meetings, it was different. But, as the months passed, I noticed that my advice was no longer taken into account and the results were seen – underlines Ricciardi – There has always been a great harmony with Minister Speranza. And I know that over the summer we squandered all the carefully crafted security and virus control capital created in the previous months. The reopening of the discos was perhaps the most perverse choice, linked to the autonomous decisions of the Regions “. By 2021, he concludes,” the hope is that, in the end, this pandemic will really change us for the better. But frankly, I don’t see any positive signs from this point of view. “
