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The dreaded third wave is on its way. For weeks, researchers had been watching these local “red spies” moving under a stable national curve. Real alarms about the rebound in infections under the pressure of variants such as the English one. And today, in independent monitoring, the Gimbe Foundation records a reversal of the national trend with a 33% increase in new cases in the week of February 24 to March 2. “It is the beginning of the third wave”, sums up President Nino Cartabellotta, who points out how “local administrators continue to delay closings and local red zones arrive when the situation has gotten out of hand. This “no strategy” favors the avalanche of the virus and then forces more extensive and prolonged shutdowns ». The situation is then complicated “by the vaccination campaign that is struggling to take off” not only due to delays in deliveries but also for «Organizational difficulties in many Regions they left 2 million doses in the fridge (30% of supplies) it could avoid hospitalization and save lives especially of the most fragile ». The last Dpcm signed by Draghi, “leaves the color region system unchanged. And, as always, it is the highest paying school.
And give
In the week of February 24 to March 2, a net increase (+ 33.2%) in new cases (123,272 against 92,571 of the previous seven days) and a 10% drop in deaths (1,940 vs. 2,177). Currently, positive cases increased by 11% (430,996 against 387,948) and people in home isolation (409,099 against 367,507). In health, hospitalizations with symptoms increased by 7% (19,570 versus 18,295) and intensive care by 8% (2,327 versus 2,146). The employment of Covid patients in 5 regions exceeds the 40% threshold in the medical area and in 9 regions the 30% threshold in intensive care. Compared to the previous week, In 16 Regions and in the Autonomous Province of Trento, currently positive cases are increasing per 100,000 inhabitants and throughout the country the percentage of increase in new cases is increasing with the exception of the autonomous province of Bolzano, Umbria and Molise, already subjected to severe restrictive measures.
Variant control
The survey of the Istituto Superiore di Sanità estimated, as of February 18, the prevalence of the English variant at 54%, from the Brazilian to 4.3% and from the South African to 0.4%. ‘With fast-growing infections, the spread of variants is certainly higher and therefore it is essential to be timelyin the establishment of the red zones at the municipal and provincial level. “In particular, in the week from February 24 to March 2, in 94/107 Provinces (87.6%) there was a percentage increase in new cases compared to the previous week, with values that they exceed 20% in up to 65 Provinces.
Vaccines: supplies and administrations
Of the 15.6 million doses planned for the first quarter of 2021, as of March 3, were delivered to the Regions 6,542,260 (41%). To meet the contractual deadlines set as of March 31, it will be necessary to administer an average of 2.3 million doses / week in the next 4 weeks. But not only will production have to be accelerated, but also the administration campaign. Just under two million doses (the 30%) remained in the fridge: the doses administered are 4,587,565 (70.1%). Of these, 1,454,503 people completed the vaccination course (2.44% of the population) with the second dose, with marked regional differences: from 4.18% in the autonomous province of Bolzano to 1.72% in Umbria. «The start of the vaccination campaign outside hospitals and RSA – says Gili – has determined a braking on the admin front, with almost 2 million doses (equivalent to 30% of deliveries) still unused ”. There are also significant differences between the different vaccines: while Pfizer administrations amounted to 89% Of the administered doses, Moderna and AstraZeneca progress more slowly. However, if the 29.1% of Moderna is conditional on the decline due to the recent delivery of half the doses, however AstraZeneca administrations are certified 26.9%, indicator of organizational problems in mass vaccinationa, although possible selective exemptions of this vaccine or delays in the reporting of data cannot be ruled out. “Oneself for Pfizer and Moderna, it is prudent to reserve the dose for the booster expected at 3 and 4 weeks respectively given delays in supplies – explains Cartabellotta – for AstraZeneca, the second dose can be given for up to 12 weeksTherefore, there is no reason to neglect the doses, but we must accelerate the administration.
Only 3.4% of those over 80 were vaccinated
Of the more than 4.4 million over 80 in Italy, 762,271 (17.2%) received the first dose only He is alone 149,620 (3.4%) completed the vaccination course, again with important regional differences: from 26.5% in the autonomous province of Bolzano to 0.3% in Sardinia. “However, the way to accelerate the vaccination campaign – says Cartabellotta –you certainly don’t have to drive to venture into risky dangers, such as the hypothesis of administering a single dose of Pfizer or Moderna vaccine. In the absence of solid scientific evidence that allows regulatory agencies to modify the methods of administration of the product, it would be an off-label use of the vaccine, with implications for informed consent and medico-legal responsibilities. ”
March 4, 2021 (change March 4, 2021 | 11:04)
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