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An endless Brexit. The last deadline of the European Parliament – set for December 20 – failed to break the deadlock in the negotiations, the latter still held back by the nodes related to fishing rights and equal conditions.
In this sense, even the most recent developments in the face of the pandemic do not help, with the UK now threatened by a new variant of the virus. The 27 countries of the European Union have reacted in the last hours by blocking flights through the Canal, but it is likely that the resurgence of the health crisis will lead to a further slowdown in negotiations.
Meanwhile, the transition period will expire on December 31: The margin of maneuver available to Brussels to ratify a possible Brexit agreement before the end of the year has been reduced to a minimum, forcing the parties evaluate alternative solutions to avoid a no-deal total.
Brexit: negotiations are still stalled, what happens now?
The ultimatum released by the EU Parliament last week answered a purely technical question: Brussels, in fact, must ratify the agreement for it to enter into force in the European Union, but ten days may not be enough to complete the work before the gong.
The deadline, as is known, has expired, but if the deadlock is unblocked in the next few hours, MEPs could still decide to meet -in extraordinary session- approve the text agreed with the British negotiators: In this sense, the one that goes from December 25 to New Year’s Eve could be a good week.
However, the bargaining thermometer remains particularly cold. On the one hand, Brussels must maintain a hard line to put out the sovereign fire burning in the old continent, while on the other side London must safeguard, in addition to national economic interests, that spirit of independence emerged during the 2016 referendum.
Also weighs the French diktat on fishing rights. For the UK, the fisheries sector is almost irrelevant: it is only worth 436 million pounds a year, whereas the Elysee must protect its fishing boats, used to coarse fishing in British waters for years. However, British negotiators are unlikely to step back, as the sector has become a bargaining tool for Downing Street.
Now, barring unexpected progress in the negotiations, the United Kingdom and the European Union will continue to operate well beyond the December 31 deadline. There are two scenarios: the parties could decide sign an interim agreement that revolves around the points already gutted in recent months or, alternatively, we will try check the no-deal pending ratification of a final text by the European Parliament.
