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It is possible that Luigi Di Maio is right, when speaking of the referendum he says that “the front is not in fashion in the buildings and the front is in the squares.” One way of suggesting that the vote on the reform that cuts parliamentarians has a de facto result already written, with due respect to those who theorize a recovery of No in front of the Bulgarian polls of a few weeks ago. Certainly, albeit reluctantly, in recent days Matteo Salvini and Giorgia Meloni have also started to really cheer on the Yes.
Initially, their support for the referendum was mostly superficial and forced for reasons of coherence (regarding the four steps of reform in Parliament) and consensus (the presumed overwhelming majority of the Yes and the desire not to endorse an unpopular defeat). In short, a reluctant “yes”, given the awareness that a majority defeat in the referendum could have unpredictable repercussions on the government as well. Not only would Di Maio come out of it in pieces, but all M5s would see people shunned by the propaganda bulwark he made his fortune in in the good old days when he was sailing over 30%. Not to mention Nicola Zingaretti, who in the Democratic Party would end up in the dock for having forced the party to occupy a position not only considered incorrect but, ultimately, a loser. The landslide, combined with the regional result that does not seem to be good for M5 and Pd, would end up putting Giuseppe Conte’s saddle at serious risk.
The fear of an announced defeat, however, conditioned the elections of Salvini and Meloni. Unlike Silvio Berlusconi, who in recent weeks has not hidden his perplexities about the reform that cuts parliamentarians without the necessary corrections to guarantee the representation of some regions in the Senate and the functioning of Parliament itself (in particular the committees). Without going into the merits of how the balance will change for the election of the President of the Republic (the regional delegates will continue to be 58 and will have a greater specific weight with the reduction of parliamentarians from 915 to 600) or the institution of senators for life (5 of 200 are certainly more influential than 5 out of 315). In recent weeks, however, those who oppose the cut in parliamentarians have begun to mobilize, inside and outside the Lega and Fratelli d’Italia. And the reasons for the No have started to break through somehow. Salvini – a novelty for him – has thus opted for a more Christian Democrat strategy and has in fact “blessed” the “no” of Carroccio Giancarlo Giorgetti’s number two. “We are not a barracks,” said the former interior minister. And so yesterday the governor of Lombardy, Attilio Fontana, also made it known that he was against the cut. A way to maintain consistency with his position, but continue to place Carroccio more in the center of the field and thus avoid any setback. Meloni’s strategy is different and opposite. The Fdi leader, in fact, rooted out the voices of dissent within the party, so much so that Guido Crosetto preferred to choose the low profile and never returned to the issue of the referendum after he had very critical words a few weeks ago. Even yesterday, Meloni reiterated that she is in favor of the Yes. But the truth is that both she and Salvini are beginning to fear that the victory of the supporters of cutting off the parliamentarians is no longer so plebiscitary.
And this could be a problem for both of us. If the No’s were better, it would be a win, but a moderate Yes win (even 60% to 40) could instead focus attention on their forced disengagement than at the time, especially given the consensus of the Lega and the Fdi, it would be decisive. .
In short, the sovereign paradox that haunts Salvini and Meloni today is that they are the “saviors” of Di Maio and Zingaretti. And, consequently, from the Count himself.
