Veneto, Campania, Liguria, Emilia-Romagna, Tuscany and Umbria are the six regions that are at risk of becoming the orange zone and finding themselves in the “soft” lockdown with an order from the Ministry of Health that, however, must first wait the results of the monitoring of the 21 indicators and scenarios of the Istituto Superiore di Sanità whose dispatch has been postponed until today. And for a rather curious reason: the local authorities did not send the necessary numbers to do the calculations and make decisions. Four of these six could “change zones” between today and tomorrow with the signing of Roberto Speranza and the political support of Giuseppe Conte. Even if the governors say no.

Soft blocking: the six regions towards the orange zone

And so the “Report 25” that was scheduled for tonight to allow a decision to be made in the afternoon or at the latest this morning, Monday, November 9, ends up being late. Also bringing with it an unprecedented toto-regions, since although South Tyrol decided yesterday to declare the red zone in its territory, there is confusion about the possibility of declaring the orange zone in all the territories that are currently at risk. And since it is a “political” decision, in the end it is very likely that other factors also count in addition to the numbers. All this happens while the latest Civil Protection bulletin reports 32,616 new cases, with about 191 thousand swabs (about 40 thousand less than yesterday), and 331 deaths. There are 115 more intensive care patients than yesterday: the total stands at 2,749. Lombardy (+6,318), Campania (+4,601) and Piedmont (+3,884) are the regions with the highest increase in cases in the last day. And while Fnomceo, the Federation of Medical Orders, calls for a closure for the entire country.

Let’s go in order, first of all pointing out the unusual delay in the communication of the numbers. The control room for monitoring the pandemic in the regions was set for Saturday and then moved to Sunday: the reason for the postponement is that the regional health departments usually communicate the numbers in the first three days of the week and This is why the Technical meeting takes place on Friday. However, last week the red, orange and yellow zones had just been declared after the Dpcm of November 3 and carrying out the monitoring in the same period would have meant having to change the entire scheme within a few days. This is why it was decided to slip. But in the meantime, some have submitted incomplete or anomalous indicators. And yesterday, two hours before the start of the meeting, nine regions had not sent their bulletins or had sent them incomplete, despite the inquiries opened by the Judicial Power on the sending of data. Meanwhile, in Naples, says Repubblica, the prosecutor Mariella Di Mauro intends to verify the data from the stations and the other parameters used for risk classification. A work similar to that initiated by the Genoa Public Ministry, which is part of the investigation already underway for months on the construction of modular hospitals in the capital, in Caserta and Salerno. As reported by Repubblica, the increase in places in ordinary hospitalization is striking, which increased in one day by about 1,300 units, to the current 3,160, of which 1817 were used yesterday, while intensive therapies elapsed in 20 days from 335 to 590, with 186 hospitalized patients until yesterday.

Officially, in the phase of data validation by the regions themselves, for which a maximum period of 24 hours is foreseen, some asked for more time. The government, which wants to avoid problems, seems to have granted the request for an extension to allow the territories to obtain all the necessary data and then decide on new measures. “There is a serious relationship between the institutions and it would be a serious crime to give false data”, said yesterday the Minister of Health, Roberto Speranza, who returns to the issue of restrictions: “The Dpcm that we approved from which the ordinances that I sign the the whole government has shared ”and“ I don’t think it’s dirty work to sign an ordinance that imposes restrictions, I think it’s a very noble job ”.

Report 25: which regions are at risk of entering the orange zone

From this perspective, as mentioned, the regions that present alarming data are Veneto, Liguria, Emilia-Romagna, Tuscany, Umbria and Campania. Of this list, only some could be the subject of an order from the Ministry of Health with the transfer to the orange zone and the soft blockade. Daily fact Today he writes that the final version of report 25, the one containing the follow-up data for the week October 25 – November 1 for all Regions, is not complete. The control room is finishing its elaboration: today at 3 pm in Rome the Technical-Scientific Committee will meet for the final discussion and ratification. Some decisions, however, are practically made: Liguria, Tuscany, Umbria and Campania will go from the yellow zone to the orange (semi-blocking). Veneto and Lazio are on the edge. Second The impression on the other hand, Liguria, Umbria, Campania and Veneto are at risk. The stage designed by Republic instead, it is more articulated and includes up to six regions in the orange zone. Among the candidates for the orange zone are:

• Campania, which however has a series of problems with the numbers that seem “almost in the green zone” and for which the control room could decide to tighten the measures;
• Emilia-Romagna, which has an Rt contagion index higher than 1.5 and is in stage 4;
• Liguria, which has deteriorating data, especially on the hospital employment front (but Toti disagrees)
• Umbria;
• Tuscany;
• Veneto that has a 3 Rt scenario but its risk would become moderate and not higher with reservations because the problem of communication of a data (on the number of cases recognized at the beginning of symptoms) that had put it in that category was Resolved.

According to the newspaper, therefore, there are six Regions in the balance, although in the end, probably the ones that will make the jump will be four or five. Corriere della Sera, on the other hand, writes that Campania, Liguria, Abruzzo (and this is the only time this region is mentioned) as well as Umbria are at risk of restrictions. Campania, again according to the newspaper, could also make a double jump and become a red zone. According to the Ansa news agency, according to the trend of the data emerged in recent days, Campania, Tuscany and Veneto – so far yellow areas – could fall back towards the orange or even red risk assessment in the next report. In Tuscany, it is mainly the RSA guests who care, where almost one in ten elderly is positive. Of some 12,500 patients in the more than 300 facilities, 1,103 are infected, with various levels of symptoms and severity, while there are about 100 cases among operators, so the Region is preparing a special plan to separate the infected from the negative .