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26 October 2020 14:28
As COVID-19 cases rise across the UK, there is debate in the country about how best to deal with the emergency. Some would like to “let the virus run its course”, while others would prefer greater limitations with the possibility of imposing a emergency shutdown total, as during the first wave of the pandemic. But perhaps there is a third solution.
In fact, these days the idea of governments introducing a series of emergency shutdown estimates, each lasting about two weeks. In this case, the closings could be scheduled to coincide with school holidays, in order to minimize negative consequences for the education system. In the UK it would mean imposing a emergency shutdown Every two months.
On the surface, the concept follows that of emergency shutdown “Intermittent”, of short duration and particularly rigid, transmitted by some scientists who collaborate with the British government, among them the scientific consultant Patrick Vallance. Northern Ireland has imposed a emergency shutdown of this type on October 16, while Wales did so from October 23.
However, there is a crucial difference between the two strategies: i emergency shutdown estimates would be entered periodically at predetermined times, even if the number of contagion cases was relatively low. The possibility of knowing in advance the dates of the closures would reduce their impact on economic activity, while the short duration and the predetermined term could make them more acceptable to the population.
The specific duration eliminates the uncertainty, which is one of the causes of anxiety and emotional difficulties.
It is difficult to assess the effects of this strategy on the spread of the virus, but it is assumed that it can regularly reduce the number of cases. At best, this approach might avoid the need for emergency shutdown as long as the tax during the first wave of the pandemic.
There is now a greater awareness of the consequences of emergency shutdown the mental health of people who are prevented from associating with friends and family. Preemptive closures could slightly mitigate these issues. “The specific duration removes the uncertainty, which is one of the causes of anxiety and emotional difficulties,” confirms Charlotte Hilton, East Midlands psychologist.
Business activities such as pubs, restaurants and stores that sell non-essential products would still suffer a reduction in income. In the event that I emergency shutdown Two weeks every two months were scheduled, in fact, these exercises would remain closed for a quarter of the time. But it is equally true that knowing the closing dates in advance would make it easier to create a more effective financial plan.
Unfortunately, the sudden announcement of a emergency shutdown erase all the benefits of planning. So at this point it is too late to stop the effects of emergency shutdown “Intermittent” that could be introduced in the UK shortly.
How can we know that the emergency shutdown Are preventives a better solution than the introduction of social restrictions after an increase in cases (with the reverse path when contagion slows down)? This strategy has not been tested in any country in the world, so it is impossible to measure its effects on the spread of the virus, on mental health and on the economy. However, a model developed by Graham Medley and colleagues at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine suggests that a emergency shutdown Two-week national legislation introduced at the end of October would cut the number of deaths in half in the period between the imposition of the bloc and the end of the year. Since public health is the responsibility of local authorities in the UK, the governments of the four member countries should make a similar decision. At the time of writing the Medley study, the emergency shutdown proposed for October would have been preventive. The document is available online, but has not yet been published in a scientific journal.
Now that cases of contagion are increasing in much of the country, the question is whether the current restrictions are sufficient or if the four nations that make up the United Kingdom should introduce a emergency shutdown total and not preventive.
Such a path would be similar to the one Israel followed last month when the government introduced a emergency shutdown three weeks to respond to the rapid increase in cases. After postponing the end of the emergency shutdown, the Israeli authorities are beginning to ease restrictions.
In early October in the UK, members of a COVID-19 advisory board called the Independent Sage recommended a emergency shutdown total and immediate throughout the country, lasting two to three weeks, followed by less severe restrictive measures in the following weeks.
According to Christina Pagel, who is part of the Independent Sage and hails from University College London, I emergency shutdown Regular budgets would not be necessary if the UK government used the proposed shutdown to increase testing and contact tracing. “We don’t want to keep closing. Planning for closings means admitting to bankruptcy. ”
Michael Edelstein, of the Israeli University of Bar-Ilan in Ramat Gan, is convinced instead that planning is essential, but instead of imposing a series of emergency shutdown Pre-established would prefer that governments reach an agreement on a contagion threshold beyond which to trigger the shutdown: “There is no time to argue for weeks.”
(Translation by Andrea Sparacino)
This article was published in the weekly New Scientist.
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