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The government believes that staying in the yellow band is unsustainable. Among the hypotheses, the modification of the Rt threshold to tighten the bans
VENICE. Veneto’s epidemiological trend, marked by a high flow of infections and hospitalizations, contrasts with the permanence in the yellow zone of moderate risk. Furthermore, the Rt index estimated at around 1.1 reveals that the long-awaited decrease in contagion has not yet entered the downward curve. In these conditions, the realistic perspective is that of a relocation of the region in the most restrictive orange band as of January 7, when the decree that sanctioned the “alternate” closure of the country on vacation expires.
This is what emerges from the conclusions of the Palazzo Chigi summit that brought together Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, the heads of delegation of the majority parties (5 Stelle, Pd, Iv, Leu) and the Minister of Regional Affairs in the morning Francesco Boccia, solid lineORnorth between Rome and the territory. Obviously, the discussion has involved the whole gamut of regions: if at the moment Veneto, Liguria and Calabria are of major concern, also Emilia Romagna, Friuli Venezia Giulia and Marche report an alarming increase in cases. To further complicate an already confused and fragmented picture, there is the risk definition procedure, entrusted to the government control room, better still, the result of the algorithm adopted by the Higher Institute of Health. The mathematical model, inspired by 21 scientific indicators, does not allow negotiation margins and is conditioned to objective parameters: the aforementioned Rt but also the provision of intensive care units and the ability to monitor positive subjects; well, despite the forecasts, an “aseptic” application of the model today would reiterate the yellow grade to Veneto, given the ability of its health system to treat the sick, carry out tests massive and ensure bio-surveillance of positives. Thus, the hypothesis circulated at the meeting is to modify the criteria of the fateful algorithm, lowering the Rt threshold to 1 (compared to the current 1.25) beyond which the coloration automatically turns orange.
The eventuality does not seem to bother Governor Luca Zaia, although he is quick to point out the uniqueness of the procedure: “The current contagion transmissibility index was defined by authorized scientists, not by the trump club. As always, we will respect the indications of the ISS, we are convinced that they will not be influenced by calculations of a political nature. In fact, between indiscretions and denials, the last word has not yet been spoken, in fact I rumors Capitolinos allude to the restrictive measures common to all of Italy during the weekend of January 9 to 10 and to the blocking of extra-regional mobility until the middle of the month.
So, waiting for finally clear resolutions, Roberto Battiston, the physicist at the University of Trento, tries to draw a detailed profile of the economic situation, who compared the number of infected in progress with respect to both the peak of November 27 and the September 29. . In the first case at the national level there is a decrease of 28%, from 805,000 to the current 577,000, while compared to the approximately 50,000 cases in September, the current level of infections is 11.5 times higher. And the Veneto? “It is still in the middle of the second wave with values 25 times higher than the figure at the end of September”, comments the academic, “and like Sardinia, Puglia, Marche and Trentino, it has not yet started a downward line. What else? Late at night, the State-Regions conference met to discuss the new measures. Today, it is hope, we will know more. –
