the SECOND WAVE of CONTAGIONS will cause 85,000 DEATHS. Here is WHERE and risks for ITALY »ILMETEO.it

SECOND WAVE of INFECTIONS, here are the NATIONS at riskA new boom in infections, analyze epidemiological bulletins, is already in force for some nations, While for others it still seems a long way off, however the the threat always remains high and dangerous.
A government study, prepared by the experts of Wise, the committee made up of the best national scientists on pandemics and infectious diseases, has made known to the BBC, a worst-case scenario forecast in GREAT BRITAIN, in case the epidemiological curve begins to rise in the coming months. Well the victims of the COVID-19
they could even double the current figure, which is equal to 41,501.

“If the UK goes through a second wave of coronavirus, it is likely that at least another 85,000 people will die“. If the situation really worsens to such an extent it is possible that at least restrictive measures will be reintroduced until March 2021, although the study does not speak of a emergency shutdown total, nor the closure of British schools, which are reopening.

However, the experts noted that in the report in question “a scenario is indicated, not a forecast necessarily intended to be realized, and that the data are subject to considerable uncertainty.

But for the stage you get so terrible is it supposed to happen? Among the assumptions of the study is the fact that schools remain open and that the tracking, isolation and quarantine measures implemented by the government are only 40% effective in reducing the spread of COVID-19 outside the family environment.

In addition to the number of deaths, the developed scientific model also suggests how many people would need hospital care. the 2.4% of infected people could be hospitalized in the hospital, with him 20.5% of hospitalized patients going into resuscitation and 23.3% of all hospitalized patients who die.

But not everyone agrees with these figures and here comes the answer from government. The British spokesperson defended the work carried out: “As a responsible government, we have planned and continue to prepare for a wide range of scenarios, including the worst, so that our healthcare and funeral system does not collapse.”
The autumn period and winter, in fact, with an increase in seasonal flu, is considered the most dangerous for another peak of cases, which, after a brief decrease in the months immediately following the emergency shutdown, have experienced an increase, as in the rest of Europe.
Only in the last 24 hours in Britain registered 1,406 new cases, bringing the total since the start of the health emergency to 336,000. In short, for the British, the worse still may have to come. But to be honest, we are at high risk in Europe. Spain and France.

And what about in case ITALY?
In our country, I opinions among scientists (virologists and epidemiologists) appear contrasting and sometimes opposite. In the last hours the hypothesis of those who do not believe much in the arrival of a new wave of infections of coronavirus, that of Fabrizio Pregliasco, virologist Vita-Salute San Raffaele University, who announced: “will not come, but we must work as if it were going to be and equip ourselves for the best“.
When asked if the situation could be precipitated in the next few days, taking the appearance of the black period of March and April, Pregliasco responded like this: “It’s crucial be able to monitor the different outbreaks and not saturate the capacity of the laboratories, which are doing massive work. So far we have shown that we are capable of controlling these outbreaks but as citizens we must commit to doing whatever is necessary, including downloading the Immune App, but above all demonstrating common sense in daily life. Otherwise it’s like stumbling across a runner“.
L ‘objective It is, therefore, a matter of carrying out timely containment actions, especially at the local level. “The ability of laboratories to cope with the tests of COVID-19 is under massive stress. I think the crucial element is being able to monitor each outbreak. However, we must ensure that these sprouts are not excessive, because the laboratory’s capacity has been exhausted. The outbreaks, and the action to contain these cases, are the bet for the near future, also considering the arrival of the flu. I remain optimistic that a second wave will not come, but we have to work as if there should be and equip ourselves as best we can. “ the virologist concluded.