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The withdrawal of the virus continues, relentlessly, in what has undoubtedly been the best week since the start of the epidemic. “Only” 8,300 new cases from Monday May 4 until yesterday, with a percentage increase of just under 4%, last week it was 6.6 with 13 thousand new cases.
Decreased increase in patients, who fall below 100,000 to 83,000. 17 thousand less in a week. Only two out of every hundred swabs processed are positive. All records in the week in which Italy also reached the test record, more than 412 thousand.
Just over a month ago, we counted 38,000 new patients and 5,300 deaths in one week, with an increase of 900 hospitalized in intensive care. There are now 30,000 fewer new cases, 3,700 fewer deaths, and intensive care has begun, after the peak of 4,068, a continuous decline that brought them to 1,027 yesterday, almost a quarter.
Yesterday was a record day in particular: the lowest percentage increase in all cases (+ 0.4%) and the lowest percentage of positive swabs (1.55%).
With two absolute numbers, the most important, which dates back to two months ago, when the first national closure was established in Italy: 165 victims, never so few since March 9, and 802 new cases, the lowest number since 6 of March.
OBSERVE SPECIAL – The situation also improves in Piedmont and Lombardy, the two specials observed. The first, where the peak was late, decidedly doubled the curve: weekly percentage growth of 4.5% had always been in double digits until the week of April 26 to May 3, when 10% touched it. For the first time we see weekly data for current positive declines.
Lombardy continues to garner maximum attention for absolute numbers, but also in the Region affected by a real massacre, the data continues to improve, not very quickly but constantly. For the first time, the number of currently ill patients is decreasing, almost 7 thousand less (until now, weekly figures for those currently positive have always increased). The decrease in hospitalizations, intensive care and deaths continues inexorably, all the data that is reflected nationally. The new cases fall below 4 thousand (we return almost to the beginning of the epidemic), and yesterday fell below 300 infections, it had not happened since March 3. The weekly percentage increase here is also slightly higher than the Italian one, with 5.13%.
The other regions, in addition to Piedmont and Lombardy, whose weekly growth is higher than the national one (which is 3.96%) are Liguria (5.13%), Lazio (+ 5.23%) and Puglia (4). , 08%). In addition to Molise, which makes history in itself with growth reaching 23%: after days with zero cases or little more, the small region of central Italy registered 65 in three days. Everything related to an outbreak created in the Roma community of Campobasso.
SARDINIA He has registered only 21 cases (three per day) and one death in the last week. 1.5% percentage growth, only 0.3% of the swabs tested in the last seven days were positive on the island. Still in decline (-174) and ICU patients, nine fewer, now there are only 10. Sardinia occupies less than 100 hospital beds for Covid patients in total. The percentage growth of cases in the seven days between April 29 and May 6 sees a greater increase in the province of Cagliari, where it is close to 4%. Nuoro below 3%, all others below 2%, including the most affected area which is that of the province of Sassari. Sore note, few tampons: 6.309, only 901 per day.
Therefore, excellent data in Italy and Sardinia, also positive in the areas of greatest concern. But the effects of phase 2 have yet to be seen, which we will likely be able to assess in the coming week and even more so in the following weeks.
ANALYSIS OF MORTALITY – An interesting approach is the analysis carried out by the Higher Institute of Health and Istat, which paints three different Italy’s of the virus and allows us to understand how the victims of Covid are actually much more than those officially recognized, especially in the most affected areas.
The analysis is very broad, taking into account 6,686 Italian municipalities, 87% of the total 7,904, and covers 86% of the population. Average deaths in March between 2015 and 2019 were taken and compared to the 2020 figure.
From February 20 (the day the first case was diagnosed in Codogno) until March 31, 90,946 people died in Italy, the average between 2015 and 2019 in the same period was 65,592 deaths. A difference of 25,354, of which only 54% (13,710 were victims of Covid as of March 31 in the municipalities considered) officially attributed to the coronavirus.
This additional share of approximately 11,600 deaths can be attributed to three reasons, all attributable to the epidemic: victims of the virus that were not absorbed, “indirect Covid” victims (heart attacks, organ malfunctions, such as possible heart or kidney). consequences of the disease triggered by the virus in unproven people “), and finally a part caused by the crisis in the hospital system that was unable to handle other pathologies or due to people’s fear of going to the hospital.
Be that as it may, a very high increase in mortality would be enough to silence the “conspiracy theorists” that this virus is not serious and that there was no need for a block.
THE THREE ITALIAN VIRUSES – But the figures become even more chilling if we consider the first of the three Italians, the one with a high incidence of the virus (with more than one hundred cases per 100,000 inhabitants). This includes 3,271 municipalities, 37 northern provinces plus Pesaro-Urbino. The peak of the epidemic was reached on March 20 and then gradually decreased. 89% of March deaths occurred in these areas, and mortality more than doubled compared to the 2015-2019 average for the same period (+ 113%).
With impressive data in the most tormented areas: in the Bergamo area +567.6, if 1,180 people died in March of this year, 6,238 died. More than 5 thousand more. Fear also increases in Cremona (+ 391%), Lodi (+ 371%), Brescia (+ 291%), Piacenza (+ 264%), Parma (+ 208%), Lecco (+ 174%), Pavia (+ 133%), Mantua (+ 122%), Pesaro-Urbino (+ 120%). In the province of Milan, the increase was 92.6%, deaths almost doubled from 3,400 in recent years to 6,000 in 2020.
Then there are the other two Italias, the median (between 40 and 100 cases per 100,000 inhabitants) and the low (less than 40) spread of the coronavirus. Here the peak came five days later than in high diffusion areas, then the decline began. It is not constant, a sign that the epidemic is still ongoing. In areas of medium diffusion, which includes the province of Sassari, mortality between February 20 and March 31 increased by 18%. In those with low diffusion, where Covid did not hit and to which all the other Sardinian provinces belong, it even decreased by 1.8%, due to a positive trend that manifested itself throughout Italy until the arrival of this damn virus.
SARDINIA, 173 PEOPLE MISSING – Taking into account all of Sardinia, mortality increased by 13.7%: 1,707 deaths against 1,495 of the average of 2015-2019. We are talking about 212 more deaths, only 39 officially attributed to the virus. 173 are missing.
Let’s go to the provinces. In Sassari, mortality in March increased by 18.7%, in January and February it decreased compared to the same period 2015-19. In March, 630 died, 96 more than the average of 534 in previous years. Only 27 are diagnosed with Covid. In Cagliari it ranges from 174 to 186, only one of the 12 most diagnosed Covid. In Oristano, 18 more deaths, from 208 to 226, one attributed to the virus. In Nuoro 242 the victims, 15 more of whom are diagnosed with Covid. In southern Sardinia, more than 20% of victims in March, up to February, decreased slightly compared to previous years. Of the 72 more deaths in March 2020, only four are attributed to the virus.
WHERE ARE YOU INFECTED DURING THE LOCKOUT? – A final study to understand how Italians became infected in the closing period. The Istituto Superiore di Sanità took into consideration a sample of the new cases that occurred in April, and it was known that almost half (48.6% to be precise) occurred in RSA, nursing homes or community for the disabled. 22% of infections occurred in the family, a sign that we did not know how to seriously isolate the positives, and we left them at home to infect family members. Still: 9.9% in hospital, 3.7% in the workplace, 1.2% on cruises, 0.9% in religious communities, 0.1% in refugee centers. The remaining 13.6% contracted the virus in another way: perhaps on public transport, in the supermarket, or at prohibited meetings or gatherings with friends.
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– Coronavirus, daily updates in Sardinia
Hourly updates in Italy andabroad
