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The premise is that “it takes two weeks to see the de-escalation of cases as a result of the measures”, as the director of Prevention of the ministry Gianni said yesterday during the press conference commenting on the data from the Civil Protection bulletin on the coronavirus emergency . Rezza. He also warned that “with escalation, instead, we go directly to the next level because we need an early warning system.” However, the meaning of the declaration is clear: some regions as of next Friday could go from the red zone to the orange one. Precisely due to the effect of the trend in Rt.
Red Zone Regions That Could Turn Orange
What are the red zone regions that could turn orange? The impression He writes today that among the candidates there are Lombardy and Piedmont, while on the contrary, the case of Lazio is viewed with some concern, which for a few days has registered a greater growth in infections. “We have a downward trend in Rt, which this week’s estimate is 1.4” from the previous 1.7. “This means a downward trend in the transmission of infection in the country. This is the earliest indicator we have,” Rezza said. “This trend towards a decrease in transmission, if confirmed, and I hope it will be confirmed in the coming days and weeks,” the expert hoped, “could be proof that adequate measures have been taken both at the national and regional levels.”
At the level “of the various regions – continued Rezza – we see effects that suggest a positive trend, because some regions that had Rt from the red zone this week seem to be experiencing a de-escalation”. In others, the opposite has happened, “but the general RT has decreased a bit. And this image tends to give us hope, even if we have to see how it will consolidate in the coming days and weeks. Hospital overload, in fact, has reiterated – still is and is the biggest problem. ”
But there are those who speculate that the transition of an entire region from red to orange is premature for now. And that on November 21, the expiration date of the Ministry of Health ordinances, Roberto Speranza at most was able to “liberate” some provinces where the coronavirus made a massacre between February and May and today they seem less affected. Il Fatto Quotidiano explains today that among the candidates are Bergamo and Brescia: in Lombardy the incidence of positives per inhabitants calculated on regional data ranging from October 31 to November 13 says that Varese, Monza / Brianza, Como and Milan are within the head, in second, third and fifth place at the national level, while Brescia is in position 64 and is below the national average, as well as Bergamo 91. Piedmont, which has six provinces among the twenty most affected (Turin is the seventh: 1,182), is in a worse situation than Lombardy: 9 days pass between symptoms and diagnosis, when the average is 3 and Lombardy 5.
Orange and red zone: prohibitions and rules throughout Italy
The cases of Piedmont and Lombardy and those of Lazio and Basilicata
For the newspaper also Liguria and Sicilia, orange, see Rt go down, respectively, from 1.37 to 1.1 and from 1.28 to 1.13: on the slides they are already yellow. In Scenario 4 the other red areas remain: Valle d’Aosta with Rt at 1.74 and incidence at 1263 per 100 thousand inhabitants, Bolzano with Rt at 1.59 and 1429 cases per 100 thousand inhabitants, while Calabria, another red region, has seen a decrease in Rt to 1.38, has a much smaller number of cases and would almost be scenario 2, but it is considered “not evaluable” because it communicates the date of onset of symptoms, which is essential to calculate Rt, only for 33.7% of cases, when the threshold is 60% (only Basilicata, 52%, and Val d’Aosta, 45.7%, are below). Campania and Tuscany, on the other hand, are in the red because the RT (as of November 4) rose to 1.62 and 1.8 respectively, while the average fell from 1.72 to 1.43.
The new Dpcm for Christmas and the third wave of risk in January
But it is too early to imagine a gradual return to normalcy in December. Even if the last Dpcm that introduced the curfew expires on the 3rd of the month: a measure that, explains Repubblica, Giuseppe Conte never liked: the Prime Minister thinks that it is impossible to prevent family and friends from meeting after 10 of the night. at Christmas and New Years. But it does not intend to give away a “free den for all” which, experts warn, could provoke a third wave of the epidemic from January: “The ban on moving after 10 pm in territories subject to the “Red” regime will certainly remain, because there it is even forbidden to leave the house. It is likely that limits will also be placed on purchases: if you have to define the schedule or the “capacity” in the busiest streets “.
For this reason, Il Mattino explains today, it seems difficult to think that a region like Lombardy where, every day, between 8 thousand and 10 thousand new positives are registered, in a month can return to the yellow band. But the same reasoning must be done for Piedmont and Campania. Because the incidence of positives in Piedmont is similar to that of the neighboring region, but with an even higher hospital filling rate: 59% from intensive care units and 92% from other wards. It is true that the RT has dropped and this could allow it to return to the orange band, but yesterday with less than twenty thousand swabs 4471 positives were found: almost one in five.
Then there is the case of Campania. The RT is above 1.6 and the ICU fill rate is above the warning level. On the other hand, two regions are likely to switch zones after data deterioration. One is Basilicata, which has a transmission rate above 1.6 and has no data available on hospitalizations. The other is Lazio, while Veneto is also among the candidates. But the decisions will be made next week.
