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All Italian regions are witnessing a new wave of infections and none of these can now be considered low risk. However, some areas of Italy are experiencing a further increase in new cases and hospitalizations, with a transmissibility index Rt greater than 1. Not to mention, the ability to cope with a boom in severe cases is not the same in all regions, and some are more likely than others to be overloaded with intensive care.
Following the decision to close schools in Campania, there are fears that more restrictive lockdown measures will be introduced in other parts of Italy, such as night curfews and business closings such as hairdressers, beauty centers, gyms and cinemas. In the last hours the rumors have become more insistent, even advancing the hypothesis of a new DPCM which will be signed urgently, perhaps already during the weekend, by Giuseppe Conte.
Gym, hair salon and beauty salon closures: that’s where
The latest Decree of the Prime Minister issued on October 13 and in force until November 13 introduces a series of regulations and restrictive measures aimed at countering the spread of Covid-19 in Italy. However, many think that the text is incomplete and that we should be preparing for a series of new restrictions and closures.
The DPCM specifies that the regions may impose more restrictive measures than the national ones depending on the evolution of the epidemiological situation in their territories. De Luca, for example, with a regional ordinance closed schools until October 30.
The teacher. Walter Ricciardi, advisor to the Minister of Health for the coronavirus emergency, former commissioner of the Istituto Superiore di Sanità and current Italian representative to the WHO, said that given the very serious situation of the circulation of the virus, in the areas where the contagion index is greater than 1, experts have proposed the closure of aggregation points such as clubs, gyms and non-essential commercial establishments, the use of smart working as an ordinary form of work throughout the country and obviously interventions to ensure and improve public transport.
The moment it arrives only hypothesis: neither the Government nor the Regions have announced news of this type.
The regions most at risk
Going into more detail, what Regions most at risk of curfew and I lock up?
According to ISS monitoring data on contagion in Italy, in the last week the index Rt is 1.17, calculated on symptomatic positives, and the cumulative incidence is 75 per 100,000 population. In 17 regions we are above the risk threshold set by the experts, and that means there is something to worry about.
The highest values were recorded in Aosta Valley (1.53), Piedmont (1.39) e Autonomous province of Bolzano (1.32) followed by Campania (1.29), Tuscany (1.28), Sicily (1.23), Lombardy (1.15) and Lazio (1.14).
The only regions with Rt equal to 1 or less than 1 are:
- Basilicata (1)
- Calabria (0.94)
- Molise (0.83)
However, an important fact to consider is also incidence. Although Tuscany has registered a Rt higher than that of Lombardy, it has an incidence of 39.86 per 100 thousand inhabitants, the Lombardy 58.49.
Here it is table with the cumulative incidence of Covid-19 in the Italian regions (data updated to October 13 and referring to the week of October 5 to 11).
The report reports that 10 regions have a high risk for the maintenance of intensive care. These are Campania, Abruzzo, Emilia Romagna, Lombardy, Liguria, Aosta Valley, Tuscany, Puglia, Sardinia, and Umbria. Here there is a greater probability of exceeding the 30% threshold of intensive care units occupied by Covid patients in the next month, with Lombardy and Liguria leading the risk.
