The plan for the confinement in Italy as of November 9 (denied by the government?)

According to the prime minister Giuseppe Conte no plan for one emergency shutdown “imminent”. Yesterday, speaking with the unions, the prime minister denied, calling them fake news, the rumors of an imminent closure. “Let’s give the recently approved restrictive measures time to fully develop their effects,” said the prime minister. So wait, aiming to “control” the curve and try to reopen, cautiously, for Christmas. And ironically today we are talking about a emergency shutdown by the date of November 9. Somehow validating the rumors that until yesterday were being pursued about a new Dpcm that arrived just in November with “soft” closures (whatever that means).

Scenario 4: the November 9 closure plan (denied by the government?)

Let’s start from the beginning. Yesterday the Civil Protection bulletin reported almost 25 thousand new cases and 205 deaths, while the positives are currently 276 thousand (a record never reached during the first wave of the epidemic). Then there are eight regions with more than a thousand new coronavirus infections registered in the last twenty-four hours: in addition to Lombardy, the leader with 7 thousand, followed by Campania with 2761 cases, Piedmont with 2458, Lazio 1993, Tuscany 1823, Veneto 1526, Emilia -Romagna 1413 and Liguria 1127.

And today, as if to respond to the departure of Conte last night, The messenger writes in an article signed by Alberto Gentili, that if the contagion curve does not stabilize, the lockdown plan must start from Monday, November 9 and last until mid-December to save at least Christmas. What’s more: according to the newspaper, it is not even ruled out that the executive’s plans are advanced in the event of a repetitive worsening of the situation. The plan, although there are those who circulate hoaxes on Facebook and WhatsApp who instead give “everything decided” for November 2, it would be more “soft” or soft compared to that of the beginning of 2020, following that of France. and should include:

• open companies, factories and offices;
• Chisui stores except food;
• going out alone to go to work, take the kids to school, shop, or for medical reasons
• the stop at municipal and regional borders with territorial blockades in the most affected cities

The first candidates for the hard line are Milan and Naples. And the threshold within which the government should intervene would be 35-40 thousand infections per day, in what is called “Scenario 4”: the objective would be to minimize contacts between family and friends who do not live together – which generate 75% of infections, and stops crowds on public transportation:

Hence the obligation to stay at home, if not for work, health and taking children to kindergarten or primary school: an indispensable solution to allow parents to work smart. A shake that, if it were for the Minister of Health Roberto Speranza and Dario Franceschini, exponents of the rigorist wing of the government, should be presented long before November 9.

And also The impression write today that the date circled on the calendar is November 6, every Friday there is the ISS report, which gives a picture of the situation. And on Saturday a new Dpcm could come out with effect from November 9: “In that case,” adds the newspaper, “there are also those who also see the prospect of a public health government opening up, after Zingaretti’s call to involve to the opposition and the glove collected by Silvio Berlusconi “.

Close everything in November: does the government deny it?

In all this, Conte’s responses to the unions have the flavor of a preventive denial of this plan. Or not, given that the prime minister’s declaration literally speaks of no to an “imminent” blockade and, in fact, this plan should be activated in about ten days. An observation that resonates in the title of the interview given by Agostino Miozzo to the Corriere della Sera: “Follow the rules for two weeks or everything will be closed.” This is because for the coordinator of the Scientific Technical Committee it will take “at least two weeks, then we will be ready to decide if we have reached the incompatible limit and we must move on to a more radical intervention like the one we painfully experienced in March and April”.

Therefore, wait for the results of the constraints present in the last Dpcm before deciding. This is the government’s strategy, explains the Ansa news agency: “a strategy that does not exclude local closures but could collide with the need for a total closure. For now, Palazzo Chigi is keeping the hypothesis at bay. The effects on the social stability of the country, explains a government source, could be unpredictable. We proceed with a gentle step, therefore, taking into account that the “chronological” order of the pandemic in Europe compared to March, when Italy was the leader It’s quite different, so to speak. But everything will depend on the next few days. ”Also because the polls at the ministers’ and the Prime Minister’s tables are different, not just the Swg published yesterday, according to which 28 percent of the Italians consider the current measures adequate, 25 percent consider them excessive but 36 percent consider them insufficient. In addition, there are also those who presage a European closure plan in which they are working. I am the Commission and Parliament, with Ursula von der Leyen and David Sassoli at the forefront.

Towards a new Dpcm in November for the closure in Italy?

But in Roman palaces, as well as among citizens, the fear of the winds is that the road is already marked. “We are not talking about that yet – a great government official told Adnkronos – but a maximum of ten days and we will align ourselves with Merkel and Macron. The curve will not slow down …”. The hopes that the squeeze decided on Saturday, generating discontent and tension in many Italian squares, could curb the contagion seem almost reduced to a blink of an eye. The figures today speak of 24,991 positives and 205 deaths. Numbers that shake and push the governor of Apulia Michele Emiliano to accelerate: schools of all levels and levels closed. A decision that generates confusion, especially among the 5 Stars, who interpret the closure of the classrooms as a defeat of the grillina line carried out by Minister Lucía Azzolina, constantly attacked.

But net of the school, destined to become a cause of certain conflict between allies in the event of a new blockade, the government seems for now in a waiting line, determined to evaluate the effects of the Dpcm and let the mayors and governors press. . of new squeezes, also in light of what happened last Saturday, with the document presented by the Regions that, in fact, disavowed the measures about to be adopted, requesting a substantial revision. The hope, however weak it may be, is that now the territories will decide, especially those most in trouble, in the first place Lombardy, which today has registered 7 thousand infections in just 24 hours. Only in this way, with a clear and specific adjustment when necessary, could the epidemiological curve go back below alert levels and perhaps breathe again at Christmas. But the situation is fluid, the virus does not stop its race and continues to earthquake the majority. While in Italy, as well as in Europe, there is a different ghost from the nineteenth century: that of a new confinement.